Written by Jayson Stark at ESPN.com
The World Series parade will depart City Hall right on schedule this fall. But don’t rearrange your schedule. You won’t be there.
That’s because your team won’t be participating in that parade — no matter who “your team” might be. I can say that with confidence because, after spending years incorrectly predicting which juggernaut will win the World Series, I’ve seen the light.
The odds of picking the team that will win the World Series: way too stacked against me. The odds of picking the teams that won’t win it all: excellent.
So here we go. Why won’t “your team” win the World Series? You’re about to find out.
Chicago Cubs
You wait a century to see the Cubs win one World Series and now you expect them to win every World Series? Sorry. Not going to happen. The Cubs aren’t going to repeat because … nobody repeats.
Oh, they’re built to repeat. They’re good enough to repeat. It might even be an upset if they don’t win it all again real soon. But this is baseball, a sport in which no team not known as “the Yankees” has won back-to-back World Series in roughly a quarter-century (since the 1992-93 Blue Jays) — and in which exactly one National League team (the 1975-76 Big Red Machine) has repeated in the past 95 years.
Why won’t the Cubs win again? Because, well, baseball.
Cleveland Indians
The Indians played baseball until Nov. 2 last year. Have you noticed that can leave its mark on the weary troops? So as beautifully constructed as this team may be to win now, you know why this won’t be the year it ends that infamous little 69-year title drought? Because that 2016 workload is too likely to take its toll on the 2017 Indians.
Is Carlos Carrasco going to be OK? Will that rotation — now minus Cody Anderson, who is out for the year — going to get through the marathon? And how about that bullpen? Bryan Shaw, Andrew Miller and Cody Allen went to the mound a combined 243 times last year. And they’re now closing in on 700 appearances over the past three years, not even counting Miller’s leisurely work this spring in the World Baseball Classic. If any of those three — let alone all of those three — go down, aren’t the same or both of the above, it will be time for all those folks in Cleveland to sing once again: “Wait ’til next year.”
Boston Red Sox
Once there was a time when we could have just said the Red Sox won’t win the World Series because … of course, they won’t, they’re the Red Sox. But now that New England has mostly gotten past believing their grandfathers were right to suspect that if it can go wrong, it will go wrong, we’re forced to remind New England that this spring, it already has gone wrong.
When is David Price coming back, and how dominating will he be? Can’t tell you. Is Drew Pomeranz going to make 30 starts? Or 20? Or 10? Can’t tell you. Is Eduardo Rodriguez’s knee going to act up? Are Steven Wright’s shoulder issues going to flare at some point? Who the heck knows.
There were lots of good signs on all those fronts late in spring training. But stuff will happen to this rotation because stuff always happens. And stuff has already happened. So that’s a problem because, as good as this team is in every other way, “if they have injuries to their staff,” said one rival executive, “I don’t think they have that No. 6-7-8 starter who’s good enough to cover that.”
Los Angeles Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw spent 75 days on the disabled list last year with a herniated disc in his back. The Dodgers survived, somehow or other. You want to bet on that happening again? Go right ahead. But despite the miraculous survival skills L.A. unfurled last summer, its ace is still one of the most irreplaceable humans in baseball. And aces with bad backs represent a segment of the species that would make any front office nervous.
Let’s ignore Kershaw’s mysterious October struggles for a moment. Let’s even assume that there will come a time when Julio Urias will be unleashed to be as awesome as any 20-year-old since Jose Fernandez. The Dodgers aren’t winning a World Series without Kershaw. Period. Because, as one NL West executive put it succinctly, “nobody can replace him.”
Houston Astros
The Astros’ time has come. And by that, we mean the Astros’ position players’ time has come. But why won’t the Astros win the World Series? They pretty much announced it to the world last winter. Not by issuing an official press release or anything, but by what they spent their offseason trying to trade for — namely, a legit power arm with top-of-the-rotation stuff and presence.
Dallas Keuchel owns a Cy Young trophy, but he also owns a shoulder that caused him significant issues last year. Lance McCullers owns ace-type stuff, but “good luck keeping him healthy,” said one rival executive. No wonder the Astros lust after Jose Quintana. They’ve also consistently balked at giving up Kyle Tucker, Francis Martes and the kind of young arms the White Sox have consistently asked for. If this team doesn’t trade for an ace at some point, the World Series parade will take place in someone else’s town.
Washington Nationals
Do the Nationals miss Jonathan Papelbon yet? How ’bout Drew Storen? Heck, is Mike MacDougal available? There’s so much to like about this team. But the Nationals can’t win the World Series because … how can you pick a team to win it all when even the people who run it aren’t sure who’s going to close Game 7 of that World Series?
Yeah, yeah. We know the Cubs didn’t go into last season with Aroldis Chapman as their closer. And the 2015 Royals didn’t start that season with Wade Davis as their closer. And the 2014 Giants sure weren’t built to have Madison Bumgarner save Game 7, either. But it feels like those teams at least entered those seasons with a lot more general bullpen stability than this team.
Maybe Shawn Kelley, Blake Treinen or Koda Glover can handle that niche. But so far, said one executive who saw them this spring, this pen has consisted of just “a bunch of guys with the bullets to close, but nobody has bought that ticket.”
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