Written by Andrew Brant at MMQB.com
I’m writing from the Sloan Sports Analytics conference at MIT, where I spoke on sports and marijuana, and next I’ll be heading to South by Southwest, where I will speak on sports and gambling. You might be sensing a theme there, but first, some NFL thoughts as the business of football heats up.
Making Sense of Cousins
I continue to disagree with narratives about Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins, who has been franchise-tagged for the second consecutive year, and the team’s alleged dysfunction of handling his contract status. Having been on both sides as a team executive and as a player agent, I’m not seeing any of this here.
Although I grew up in Washington a diehard Redskins fan, my readers know that I have been quite critical of the team in the past, specifically its history of unsuccessful attempts at making expensive quick fixes rather than taking the long view toward sustained success. Having said that, I cannot find fault over their management of Cousins’s contract. Were Cousins a “normal” free agent, I would feel differently. This, however, is not normal due to the powerful management tool of the franchise tag.
Last year, the team and Cousins negotiated a $15-16 million level before applying the $20 million franchise tag. And, I am told, they were surprised that Cousins, who had made little in career earnings at that point, didn’t jump at such a deal. Should Washington have negotiated at a higher level last year? Well, the top “true free agent” quarterback, Brock Osweiler, wasn’t able to garner much more than that ($17 million a year) and Washington was able to “rent” Cousins at a high one-year number despite being apart on valuation.
Spinning it to the present, Cousins’s camp sees the $24 million tag number as a fresh data point for average per year on a long-term contract. And while Washington may be willing to go above the level of their negotiations last year, they are not going to the $24 million level for more than one season, a contract that would make Cousins the second-highest player in the NFL (only behind Andrew Luck).
As to Cousins having leverage, well, he had leverage to get a $24 million, one-year deal. Beyond that, the tag has stripped him of leverage to get the long-term deal he wants. Washington has plenty of salary cap room and can negotiate (or not) at whatever level they like with the tag as a powerful safety net in negotiations. And while Cousins may have more leverage next year, the team can start to plan on life without him if they choose to do so.
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