Written by Jeff Shand-Lubbers at Sporting Charts
The familiar site of a team lining up for a kickoff to start a half or following a score is becoming largely ceremonial.
It was no surprise when following the 2010 football season the NFL announced that kickoffs would be taken from the 35 yard line instead of the 30 yard line that the number of touchbacks would go up and the number of kick returns would go down. In 2010 Billy Cundiff led all kickers with 40 touchbacks and the following year Thomas Morstead led all kickers with 68 touchbacks. In 2010 the total number of kick returns was 2,033; a year later it dropped down to 1,375, a total decline of nearly 33%.
The story has changed since then, however. By 2014 the number of kick returns dropped to 1,226, and through the first 12 games for all teams this season there have only been 812 kick returns, which projects to just 1,083 for the entire season (more on that below). In short, kickoffs are becoming much more commonplace and kick returns are becoming rarer.
Of course, it’s difficult to blame the league for wanting to limit the number of kick returns. The league found that a disproportionate number of kickoffs were taking place on returns, and with as much of a spotlight as has been on player safety from all over the place (this year’s Will Smith movie included), it’s understandable when player safety drives decisions that can change the fabric of the game.
Anecdotally, it seems that returners are just itching to try to make a play when they are getting fewer and fewer chances to over the course of the season. In my viewing this year it seems that many returners are taking the ball out of the end zone and not making it back to the twenty yard line, costing their team a few yards in field position. Although it’s not very fun for a player to take a knee in the end zone, it’s often the smart play.
When players do elect to return the ball from their end zone, is it a smart play? Instead of relying on my limited viewing, let’s dig into the numbers from the Play Index of pro-football-reference.com to find out (though the first 13 weeks of the 2015 season):
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