Written by Bud Elliott at SB Nation.com
I would say my luck is beginning to turn a bit, but it hasn’t. I’ve just made better picks. I am still 6-17 in spreads decided by a field goal or less. On average, my wins have been by 35 percent more than my losses ( 14 to 10.4).
After a horrible 33-51 start, I am 35-21 in my last two weeks. If you quit following me or started to fade me after that start, I can’t say that I blame you.
While this week might not be the most fun to watch, remember that bets pay the same, regardless of whether the game is on ESPN or ESPN3.
Wednesday
1. Appalachian State at Louisiana Lafayette +10.5: Lafayette’s rush defense is much better than its pass defense, which matches up well with the strengths of ASU.
Friday
2. Duke at Louisville -34: Duke’s offense is really awful, which should give Louisville many chances to score.
3. Mississippi State at BYU -7: Mississippi State’s offense is really bad, and this is an awkwardly timed road trip.
4. San Diego State -16.5 at Fresno State: I successfully backed Fresno State last week, but this line should be 5-7 points higher, as Fresno State’s rushing defense is poor.
Saturday
5. Ohio State -10 at Wisconsin: Wisconsin has a salty defense, but has faced nothing but pro-style offenses so far in LSU, Michigan State, and Michigan. Ohio State is a different animal. Also, the Badgers’ offense is awful.
6. Alabama -12 at Tennessee: I have successfully bet on or against Tennessee four times this season. Here’s one for the thumb. Alabama will make Josh Dobbs throw the football less efficiently than Georgia or Texas A&M did.
7. North Carolina +7 at Miami: Miami was beaten up last week, and North Carolina should bounce back on offense in better conditions.
8. Ole Miss -7 at Arkansas: Arkansas has allowed a combined 1,680 yards on 200 plays to TCU, Alabama, and Texas A&M. That is an astounding 8.4 yards/play. Ole Miss is off a bye week.
9. Eastern Michigan +7.5 at Ohio: Eastern Michigan is merely bad, not awful, which is a change from the norm.
10. Ball State -10 at Buffalo: One of the important things in wagering is knowing good from great. But it’s also important to know bad from awful. Sometimes the latter is tougher. Ball State is bad; Buffalo is awful.
To continue reading this article, click here.
