Written by Kevin Seifert at ESPN.com
And that’s a wrap.
The 2016 season ended moments ago, with the New England Patriots’ 34-28 overtime victory over the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl LI. The Patriots and Falcons have now joined the rest of the NFL in the offseason, where preparations for the 2017 campaign are well underway.
You know what that means, right? It’s never too early — or maybe, in this one case, it is just a bit — for Power Rankings. What follows is an initial rendering from our ESPN voting panel of how the league might stack up next season.
Click here to see the final regular-season rankings of 2016.
1. New England Patriots
2016 record: 14-2
Why they’re here: It’s tough to pick against coach Bill Belichick to field an elite team — especially after the Patriots compiled the league’s best record in a season that began with quarterback Tom Brady’s four-game suspension. Brady will turn 40 in August, but for the moment, he is backed up by two quarterbacks who won starts without him in 2016. More than anything, this season reaffirmed Belichick’s unique ability to build a team out of what other teams might consider indiscriminate parts.
What could change: The big question looming over the Patriots is when Brady will start playing to his age. It has to happen sometime, right? That will be the point when we start questioning the Patriots’ short- and long-term fortunes. Trade rumors around backup Jimmy Garoppolo are illuminating. Would the Patriots really trade a player with such upside when their starter is nearing his 40th birthday?
2. Atlanta Falcons
2016 record: 11-5
Why they’re here: The Falcons had the best offense in the league in 2016, and that does not appear to be a one-year wonder. Quarterback Matt Ryan led the NFL in QBR and won the league MVP, receiver Julio Jones was unguardable, and the tailback duo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman were more than complementary. From a personnel standpoint, the Falcons are poised for another high-scoring season.
What could change: The Falcons will suffer a big loss in offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, who will leave to be the 49ers’ head coach. Ryan has plenty of experience in changing offensive coordinators, but he clicked better with Shanahan than with any of his previous coaches. Personnel is the most important part of success, but changing schemes can be tricky. The Falcons’ defense, meanwhile, had a deficient pass rush in 2016, which went largely unnoticed amid Vic Beasley Jr.’s 15.5 sacks. Atlanta ranked No. 27 in pressure rate (24.9), a weakness that could have more impact next season.
3. Dallas Cowboys
2016 record: 13-3
Why they’re here: The Cowboys were good enough to thrive after losing their top two quarterbacks before training camp began, and they are now positioned well for the long term at a number of key positions. Quarterback Dak Prescott (age 23) ranked No. 3 in QBR (83.0), and tailback Ezekiel Elliott (21) led the league in rushing (1,631), aided by arguably the NFL’s best offensive line. It was, and will be, a strong combination.
What could change: The Cowboys could get a boost if linebacker Jaylon Smith, a second-round pick in 2016, can get back on the field after a knee injury cost him his rookie season. But the Cowboys’ biggest issue in 2016, and one that could impair their run at a Super Bowl title, was a weak pass rush. They ranked No. 30 in the NFL with a 22.7 pressure rate. That’s an especially glaring weakness in a playoff game against a top quarterback, and it could impact the Cowboys’ 2017 fortunes.
4. Green Bay Packers
2016 record: 10-6
Why they’re here: Teams that finish the season hot leave behind strong memories. The Packers rode an eight-game winning streak into the NFC Championship Game, bolstered by arguably the best series of games in quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ career. By the end, the Packers seemed to have solved the offensive issues that caused them a 4-6 start. Converted receiver Ty Montgomery appears to be a legitimate running back, and receiver Jordy Nelson finally made it all the way back from his torn ACL.
What could change: The Packers’ defensive collapse in the NFC Championship Game — they allowed 493 total yards to the Falcons — was a reminder of their serial deficiency on that side of the ball in the Rodgers era. They must reckon with that fact alongside a scary realization that linebacker Clay Matthews will be 31 next season; he has had only one double-digit sack season in the past four. Defensive end Julius Peppers, 37, is a pending free agent. That’s two of the Packers’ top defensive playmakers.
5. Seattle Seahawks
2016 record: 10-5-1
Why they’re here: Frankly, the Seahawks enjoy a national perspective as a team that plays lockdown defense and benefits from a quarterback in Russell Wilson who can mask any deficiency. Closer observers know that was not always the case in 2016, but the causes presumably can be rectified. Most important is the expected return of safety Earl Thomas, whose broken leg corresponded with a significant dip in defensive production. Opposing quarterbacks completed 65.3 percent of their passes in the games after his injury, with eight touchdowns and no interceptions.
What could change: To maintain this lofty status, the Seahawks will need a better offseason of personnel additions than they’ve had in recent years. Their offensive line still needs upgrading. They must address a defense with aging stars. Defensive lineman Michael Bennett will be 32 next season. Defensive end Cliff Avril will be 31, safety Kam Chancellor and cornerback Richard Sherman will be 29, and Thomas will be 28.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
2016 record: 11-5
Why they’re here: Voters aren’t taking seriously the possibility that quarterback Ben Roethlisberger could retire this offseason, a possibility he discussed shortly after the Steelers’ loss in the AFC Championship Game. It is difficult to imagine backup Landry Jones as an appropriate successor. Assuming Roethlisberger returns, the Steelers have shown the team that they can be when he’s on the field with receiver Antonio Brown and running back Le’Veon Bell.
What could change: The Steelers are 3-11 against the Patriots in the past 19 seasons, including playoffs, and must decide whether they need to try something different to overcome New England in the AFC. Bell is eligible for a new contract, and Brown’s behavior throughout the season and playoffs has called into question his long-term future with the franchise. That’s a lot of uncertainty for a team ranked No. 6, but the assumption is that there will not be wholesale changes.
7. Oakland Raiders
2016 record: 12-4
Why they’re here: The franchise turned a major corner with the ascendance of quarterback Derek Carr, who was having an MVP-caliber season and had the Raiders poised for a playoff run before he broke his leg in Week 16. Carr proved to be a transcendent player, as demonstrated by the Raiders’ hapless playoff exit in the wild-card game, but this is not a one-man team. General manager Reggie McKenzie has built one of the NFL’s best offensive lines, boosted by free-agent signings and strong drafts, giving the Raiders a dangerously balanced offense. They had the sixth-most rushing yards in the NFL (1,922) to go with Carr.
What could change: An unexpected transition at offensive coordinator is worth monitoring. Quarterbacks coach Todd Downing was promoted to replace Bill Musgrave, whose contract was not renewed. On paper, it will be difficult to improve substantially on an offense that ranked No. 6 in scoring (25.6 points per game). Downing is close with Carr, however. The Raiders also will address a defense that allowed 375.1 yards per game (No. 26 in NFL) but minimized damage by forcing 30 turnovers.
8. Kansas City Chiefs
2016 record: 12-4
Why they’re here: You can at least count on a winning record from the Chiefs under coach Andy Reid, who has pulled that off in each of his four seasons with the franchise. The Chiefs were the best they’ve been under Reid in 2016, riding a defense that forced an NFL-high 33 turnovers and an offense that got playmaking from tight end Travis Kelce (1,125 receiving yards) and newcomer Tyreek Hill (12 total touchdowns). There is every reason to believe the Chiefs will continue to at least be a regular-season success in 2017.
What could change: The Chiefs must decide whether they can take the next step with quarterback Alex Smith, a cool and efficient operator who threw just 15 touchdown passes in 15 starts in 2016 and has never thrown for more than 23 touchdowns in any season. Would Reid pursue, say, Tony Romo to better capitalize on what might be a championship window? A new quarterback would certainly shake up the Chiefs’ 2017 fortunes, either for good or for bad.
9. New York Giants
2016 record: 11-5
Why they’re here: The Giants’ defense took a major jump after a series of offseason additions, allowing the NFL’s second-lowest points average (17.8 per game) and forcing 25 turnovers, tied for 11th in the NFL. The emergence of All-Pro safety Landon Collins and the consistency of defensive tackle Damon Harrison, who had the best approximate value (via Pro Football Reference) of any Giants defender in 2016, was especially promising. There is reason to believe that defense can be a strength of the Giants for years to come.
What could change: Teams always are smart to emphasize their superstar playmakers, but the Giants were too reliant on receiver Odell Beckham Jr. in 2016. He accounted for nearly twice as many yards from scrimmage (1,376) as any of his teammates. Without offseason improvement, an extended absence from Beckham would cripple the offense. The Giants will spend the offseason looking for ways to be more well-rounded.
10. Denver Broncos
2016 record: 9-7
Why they’re here: Although they missed the playoffs, the Broncos didn’t slip much defensively. They ranked fourth in scoring defense (18.6 points per game) and fifth in sack percentage (7.6 percent of opposing dropbacks). Entering a season with a new coach (Vance Joseph) and possibly a new quarterback (Tony Romo? Paxton Lynch?) leaves their short-term arc in doubt, but this team is structured well.
What could change: The Broncos have a decent idea what they have in quarterback Trevor Siemian: a level-headed young player with an average arm and below-average accuracy. (His off-target percentage of 20.9 ranked No. 27 in the NFL.) There is more upside for the offense if Lynch wins the starting job, especially with new offensive coordinator Mike McCoy, a great strategist despite his failure as the Chargers’ head coach, calling plays
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