Sorting Out the AFC Playoff Picture

Written by Pablo Figueroa at Sporting Charts

With only two weeks left in the 2015 NFL season, there are two tales regarding the upcoming playoffs. Over at the NFC, there are four teams that have already secured a playoff spot (Carolina, Arizona, Green Bay, and Seattle), with the Vikings being all but certain of taking the second Wild Card, and only the slow drag to “crown” an NFC East champion between the Giants, Redskins, and Eagles resembling a true playoff race. Even positioning is not a big deal, as the Panthers have secured the 1-spot, the Cards are taking the second bye, and Green Bay will be #3.

On the flip side, the AFC is ready to give us a ton of drama to close out the year, with only two secure playoff spots (Patriots and Bengals), and up to seven teams being within reach of the final four berths. It includes a legitimately good division race, and the possibility of yet another mediocre division champion, along with several players ready to rewrite their legacies as they approach another playoff run.

With this in mind, today we take a look at the games that will define the AFC playoffs, and make a final prediction regarding the teams that are bound to fight through January.

The Sad AFC South

The South has always earned a reputation for being mediocre, especially considering that only theColts and Texans have been mildly competitive in recent seasons. In 2015, the script was flipped just a bit to create a three-team race that has been more frustrating than exciting. While it would h ave been easy to envision yet another easy division title for the Colts, the injury to Andrew Luck has given the rest of the division a chance to make a run.

At 5-9, the Jaguars have the faintest hope of making it, but they need a lot of help to claim their first playoff trip since 2007. After dropping a very winnable game to the Falcons at home, the Jags were left almost out of the race, needing the Texans to lose both remaining games and also winning out to have a shot at winning the South at 7-9. With road games in New Orleans and Houston, the Jaguars are long shots to make it, even as we could consider 2015 as a nice building block towards their future.

The real race will wind up being between the Colts and Texans, especially after Houston seized control following the first-ever win for the franchise in Indianapolis. At 7-7 and with manageable games to come (at Tennessee and hosting the Jaguars), the Texans have everything to return to the postseason despite being down to their 4th-string quarterback. While this provides a scenario in which they could potentially start Brandon Weeden as massive home underdogs in the Wild Card round, it certainly sounds better than just going home.

Meanwhile, the 6-8 Colts could also win out easily (at Dolphins, hosting the Titans), they need the Texans to collapse. If the Texans go 2-0 to finish, they would finish 5-1 in the South, holding the tiebreaker as both teams split their head-to-head meetings. While the Matt Hasselbeck experience did well for a while, the veteran just couldn´t hold on for long at age 40. The hope of a healthy Luck has to be the motivation for the Colts thinking of 2016 and beyond.

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