Written by Case Keefer at Las Vegas Sun.com
New England goes into the NFL Playoffs at the same spot on betting boards as it spent the season — far removed at the top.
The pressure is on the Patriots. There’s no way around it after they posted an NFL-best 14-2 record, including becoming only the second team of the last 13 years — joining last year’s Vikings — to go 13-3 against the spread.
They’re plus-130 (risking $1 to win $1.30) in futures to win Super Bowl 51 next month in Houston. Those are the lowest odds attached to a team going into the playoffs since the Patriots themselves were less than Even money after an undefeated regular season in 2007.
The Giants, of course, upset the Patriots in the Super Bowl that year to start a six-year run of the favorite entering into the playoffs falling short of the Lombardi Trophy. The 2012-2013 Seattle Seahawksremain the only favorite in the last nine years to prevail in the postseason.
Talking Points wishes it had high stakes to fight for in the playoffs. Unfortunately, even a perfect 11-0 record over the next month wouldn’t get the blog to .500 picking every game against the spread this season.
After an apt 5-11 finish to the regular season in week 17, we’re now 120-132-4 on the season. It’s already guaranteed to go down as the worst in the five-year history of Talking Points.
But that doesn’t mean surrender. I’ll continue to analyze and pick every game of the playoffs from a betting perspective.
Read below for the preview of wild-card weekend.
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans, 1:35 p.m. Saturday on ESPN
The line: Texans minus-4. The old gambling tale goes that when linesmakers are unsure what to do with an NFL game, they slap a line of minus-3 on the home team and let the betting market dictate where the number goes from there. It’s a little more complicated than that, of course, but that’s essentially what happened here. Houston opened a 3-point favorite, and most bettors felt that wasn’t enough. It’s a surprising stance if looking at betting patterns on the year as a whole. Oakland was one of the most popularly bet teams in the NFL; Houston was not. But it’s far less unforeseen when looking at the specifics of the matchup. Oakland is ravaged by injury, most specifically behind center where it turns to Connor Cook, a third-string rookie who will become the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to make his first start in a playoff game.
The matchup: Forgive bettors for not wanting to load up on Cook as an underdog in a big game. They’ve done that recently, and it didn’t end well. Behind Cook in his senior year, Michigan State received the bulk of the action in last year’s College Football Playoff semifinal game as 9.5-point underdogs against Alabama. The Spartans lost 38-0 with Cook looking helpless and throwing two interceptions. Alabama’s defense was awfully good, but it pales in comparison to an NFL unit. Let alone an NFL unit that kept its team afloat.
Houston had the second-worst offense in the league, behind only Los Angeles, in gaining 4.7 yards per play but its defense did just enough to enable a second straight AFC South title. The Texans are particularly strong in the secondary, where they gave up only 6.4 yards per passing attempt to rank fourth in the NFL. Former top overall pick Jadeveon Clowney had a breakout year at defensive end in J.J. Watt’s absence, while veteran cornerbacks Kareem Jackson and Jonathan Joseph showed their best years weren’t behind them. The Raiders are far sketchier there, surrendering an NFL-worst 7.6 yards per passing attempt.
Schedule makers annually stash the least compelling of the wild-card playoff games in the early Saturday slot. They really outdid themselves this year. The Texans are the third-worst team in NFL history to reach the playoffs by Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. The Raiders were at least significantly better than that, but this isn’t the same team that beat the Texans 27-20 as 6.5-point favorites on a neutral field in week 11.
The pick: Raiders plus-4.
Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks, 5:15 p.m. Saturday on NBC
The line: Seahawks minus-8. Each of the home teams in the final three wild-card playoff games have established themselves as the NFL’s utmost powers in recent years. They’ve all won a Super Bowl since 2009 and emerged as some of the most supported teams of the decade in sports books. The Seahawks are the lone franchise that’s fallen off going into this postseason. For the first time in several years, gamblers are mostly off of Seattle. That’s reflected in this line, which has stayed planted where most local shops opened it. A couple early birds went with Seattle minus-7, but moved higher than the touchdown when the market price was set. Since then, bettors have sided slightly more with taking the big number than laying it.
The matchup: Those who wager on which team is hotter going into the playoffs won’t have a side to back here. Over the last quarter of the season, Detroit and Seattle are a combined 1-7 against the spread. Seattle had the only cover, and that was when it defeated Los Angeles 24-3 as 15-point underdogs four days after Rams coach Jeff Fisher was fired. At least Seattle managed another victory last week, edging San Francisco 25-23 as 11.5-point favorites on the road. Detroit hasn’t won since a 20-17 escape against the Bears in week 14as 7.5-point favorites.
For the Lions, it was easy to see this coming. They got up to a minus-200 favorite to win the NFC North with a two-game lead after that week 14 victory despite having only outscored opponents by an average of 2 points per game. Detroit’s magic wasn’t sustainable. Its offense also couldn’t continue to compensate for an extremely disappointing defense, which ranks dead last in the NFL by DVOA. Quarterback Matthew Stafford fell out of MVP contention by committing four turnovers during the three-game losing streak to end the season. An injured finger on his throwing hand may have assisted the struggles, and remains a concern going into a game in one of the NFL’s toughest venues.
The Seahawks are an unbelievable 38-6 straight-up and 28-15-1 against the spread at CenturyLink Field since quarterback Russell Wilson’s rookie season. Wilson had the most interceptions and lowest passer rating of his career this season, but it’s hard to assign him most of the blame. The Seahawks have fielded one of the NFL’s worst offensive lines the last few years, and though they had figured it out by the end of previous seasons, it never happened in this campaign. How Seattle holds up against Detroit edge rushers like Kerry Hyder and Ziggy Ansah, who’s questionable with an injury, will go a long way in determining which team covers.
The pick: Seahawks minus-8
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