Written by Pablo Figueroa at Sporting Charts
The Denver Broncos entered the 2015 NFL season as the odds-on favorite to win the AFC West and be a contender for a deep playoff run. Through 6 weeks, it all looks according to plan, at least on the surface. The Broncos are one of five unbeaten teams in the league, with their 6-0 record putting them 3.5 games over the second-place Raiders in the West. Meanwhile, the Chargers have looked dysfunctional for most of the season, while the Chiefs just lost their best player, Jamaal Charles, for the full season. With playoff odds above 90%, Denver holds a comfortable position going forward as they enter their bye week, but everything starts looking a bit murky when you take a dive into the team’s underlying numbers.
With a modest +37 point differential, the Broncos’ expected record suggests that they should be closer to a 4-2 team, with 5 of their wins being decided by a touchdown or less. While it would normally take a large number of reasons to explain such a dramatic gap, or we could simply attribute it to an unsustainable run of luck, the Broncos may be a bit easier to decipher. In simple terms, their defense has been a force, while their offense has been a mess. And in that offense, week after week we are witnessing the depressing and rapid decline of Peyton Manning, one of the best quarterbacks who ever lived.
The difference between each unit has been so staggering that, in terms of DVOA, the Denver defense ranks at #1 in the NFL by a comfortable margin, while their offense is dead last also by a wide number. This kind of gap between offense and defense is rare in the NFL, but it has proven even more dramatic by the kind of big plays produced by the Denver defense that have swung several games in their favor.
In a nutshell, the Broncos are fourth in points allowed per game, lead the NFL in sacks, and have produced the most takeaways. The list of big plays by the Denver defense over the first six games of the year is simply outstanding.
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