Written by Jacob Shafer at Bleacher Reports.com
Let’s get this out of the way: Yes, there are only six weeks left in the 2016 MLB season. Kind of snuck up on you, didn’t it?
That means, among other things, we can get serious about the various awards races.
A lot will be decided in the final month-and-a-half. Hot streaks, cold spells and injuries will inevitably shift the picture. And some races—like the American League Cy Young Award—are impossibly wide open.
That said, based on stats and performance entering play Tuesday, let’s parse the odds for each major piece of hardware—meaning Comeback Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year and each league’s Cy Young and MVP awards.
We’re looking at stats, obviously. But we’ll also consider past voting trends, team performance (which matters, fair or not) and a dash of old-fashioned gut feeling.
Clear some room in your trophy case and proceed when ready.
The Field
- Ian Desmond, OF, Texas Rangers: 1-1
- Rick Porcello, SP, Boston Red Sox: 4-1
- Chris Tillman, SP, Baltimore Orioles: 15-2
- Robinson Cano, 2B, Seattle Mariners: 15-2
- Doug Fister, SP, Houston Astros: 20-1
This is Ian Desmond’s award to lose.
After posting an anemic .674 OPS with the Washington Nationals in 2015, Desmond’s free-agent stock tumbled. That led to a one-year, $8 million show-me contract with the Texas Rangers. Show them he has.
Desmond’s .292/.340/.472 slash line and 20 home runs look swell enough by themselves. But he’s also learning to play center field for the first time in the big leagues and has posted a solid 6.7 ultimate zone rating.
“In the offseason, I couldn’t believe that no other team was trying to get him, no other team was going after him,” said Desmond’s former teammate, Bryce Harper, per Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post. “What a deal the Rangers got.”
If Desmond gets hurt or fades down the stretch, Rick Porcello, Chris Tillman or even Doug Fister—all of whom are having bounce-back seasons on the mound for playoff contenders—could slip into the mix. Porcello, who has lowered his ERA from 4.92 in 2015 to 3.22 and owns a 17-3 record, is the biggest threat.
Robinson Cano is there, too, thanks to his resurgent power numbers (28 home runs entering play Tuesday), but it’s a stretch to say a guy who hit .287 with 21 homers in 2015 needed to make a comeback.
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