Yardbarker’s Sam Robinson and Michael Nania go deep inside NFL games each week, focusing on key numbers and roster issues.
GLOSSARY:
DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average): A method of evaluating teams, units or players in a comparative fashion. It takes every play during the NFL season and compares each to a league-average baseline based on situation.
EPA (Estimated Points Added): The measure of a play’s impact on the score of the game. It represents the difference between a team’s “expected points value” (the net point value a team can expect given a particular combination of down, distance and field position) before and after a play.
Net Yards Per Pass Attempt: Passing yards per attempt adjusted for sack yardage.
THURSDAY
Dallas (6-6) at Chicago (6-6), 8:20 p.m. ET
Inside Cowboys numbers: Dallas is 0-5 against teams that currently have a winning record. The Cowboys lost the turnover battle 10 to one in those games.
Inside Cowboys roster: With Amari Cooper on pace to eclipse his season yardage high by nearly 150, Dallas’ decision to trade a first-round pick for him worked out. Despite Cooper wanting to stay in Dallas, it will probably come down to the team’s ability to extend Dak Prescott before the March 10 franchise tag deadline. Prescott will certainly take precedence if this extension saga moves to this point, forcing the Cowboys to tag him and thus sending Cooper to free agency. If the Cowboys cannot navigate this situation and keep an important player off the market, it will be an organizational failure.
Inside Bears numbers: Chicago’s defense has overcome unfavorable circumstances to remain one of the league’s most dominant units, ranking fourth in scoring defense per drive (1.50) despite playing with the second-worst average starting field position (opponent’s 31-yard line). The Bears allow the fourth-fewest yards per rush attempt (3.7) and seventh-fewest net yards per pass attempt (5.8).
Inside Bears roster: Chicago has not featured a long-term receiver duo since its Brandon Marshall-Alshon Jeffery tandem, but Anthony Miller has crept into the equation as a potential Allen Robinson complement. Despite a part-time role for half the season, the Bears’ second-year slot receiver surpassed his rookie-year receptions and yards total in Week 13 via his career-high nine-grab, 140-yard showing. Miller has exceeded 50 yards in six of his past eight games and is now a full-time player. Given Chicago’s issues at tight end, Miller’s development is critical for a Robinson-reliant passing attack.
SUNDAY
Carolina (5-7) at Atlanta (3-9), 1 p.m. ET
Inside Panthers numbers: Carolina’s 22 rush touchdowns allowed is the most through 12 games since the 2000 Cardinals. After taking on Atlanta’s 25th-ranked DVOA run game, the Panthers will play three teams ranked in the top-13 of rush offense DVOA (Seahawks, Colts, Saints), so more embarrassment could be on the way.
Inside Panthers roster: Despite Carolina’s struggles over the past two seasons, Ron Rivera should be a candidate elsewhere soon. But second-year owner David Tepper firing the two-time Coach of the Year was easy to anticipate, given his comments since arriving. It will be interesting to see if the Panthers stick with Cam Newton, as Kyle Allen has predictably shown he’s more a backup QB than a viable starter, given Newton’s relationship with Rivera. Tepper seeking a “modern” coach should point to the Panthers’ next leader having an offensive background.
Inside Falcons numbers: The offense is respectable, ranking 10th in EPA and 12th in points per drive (2.02). The Falcons are doing this despite a down season from QB Matt Ryan, who averages his fewest yards per attempt (7.3) since 2013 (6.9).
Inside Falcons roster: Some of the Falcons’ pass-protection issues in the Saints’ franchise-record-tying nine-sack performance stemmed from three offensive linemen being out, but backups Ty Sambrailo and Wes Schweitzer are ex-starters with several years’ experience. Atlanta’s line has underwhelmed throughout what’s been a wasted year for a veteran-laden roster. With the Falcons projected to be over the 2020 salary cap (without many cuts possible) and having used two first-round picks on linemen this year, the team will need to need to bargain shop for any upgrades it seeks for this unit.
Indianapolis (6-6) at Tampa Bay (5-7), 1 p.m. ET
Inside Colts numbers: The Colts have stubbornly stuck with a washed-up Adam Vinatieri, and it has cost them dearly. Vinatieri has missed eight field goals (tied for league lead with Robbie Gould) and six extra points (most in the league). His 30 points worth of missed kicks is by far the highest total in the league.
Inside Colts roster: Indianapolis is in a dire place at wide receiver. In addition to T.Y. Hilton battling injuries throughout the season, would-be No. 2 wideout Devin Funchess will not come off IR as the team once expected he would. Third-round rookie Parris Campbell has 115 yards receiving in five games and has not played since Week 9, and the Colts just placed auxiliary cog Chester Rogers on IR. QB Jacoby Brissett will have a difficult time keeping Indianapolis in the playoff race.
Inside Bucs numbers: Coordinator Todd Bowles’ defense has dealt with bad field position (sixth worst) due to an offense that owns the second-highest turnover rate (18.2 percent). But the group has prevailed with impressive situational football. The Bucs’ defense ranks 10th in takeaway rate (13.5 percent), and 14th in the red zone (54.3 percent).
Inside Bucs roster: Now two sacks from Warren Sapp’s season Bucs record of 16.5, pass-rusher Shaq Barrett looks like an extension no-brainer. But with he, Jason Pierre-Paul and Carl Nassib on expiring contracts, this current Bucs strength spot will be a need area soon. JPP being willing to accept a discount or an incentive-laden deal would help, given his history, but Tampa Bay may need to consider an early-round edge rusher pick due to its uncertainty here and a pricey Barrett extension likely on tap.
Miami (3-9) at N.Y. Jets (4-8), 1 p.m. ET
Inside Dolphins numbers: A dose of Fitzmagic has made the Dolphins surprisingly competitive. Fitzpatrick ranks 12th among qualified quarterbacks in QBR (60). Since Week 9, the Dolphins rank 11th in points per game (24.6), a feat nobody would have figured possible after Miami entered the bye week averaging 6.5 points.
Inside Dolphins roster: The only borderline name-brand player in Miami’s patchwork secondary, Eric Rowe signed a three-year extension this week. This move may well check off one of the Dolphins’ many needs with the ex-Patriots cornerback-turned-Dolphins safety signed through 2022 and 2018 extension recipient Bobby McCain due back from injury next year. While the Dolphins need help nearly everywhere, they appear content with their in-house safeties.
Inside Jets numbers: The run defense has allowed a league-low 2.89 yards per rush attempt, 1.4 yards below the 2019 league average of 4.29. If the Jets can maintain that mark, they would top the Super Bowl era (since 1966) record held by the 2000 Ravens (-1.39 differential, with 2.69 yards per rush allowed versus league average of 4.08).
Inside Jets roster: C.J. Mosley’s top 2019 NFL contribution was changing the off-ball linebacker market, with his Jets deal representing a staggering $4.5 million-per-year markup from 2018’s top contract at the position. But a player who missed three games in five years with the Ravens is now on IR after missing most of the Jets’ 2019 snaps due to a nagging groin problem. The Jets will need a strong 2020 from Mosley to remotely justify this outlandish $17M-per-year price, because they cannot reasonably escape this contract until 2022.
San Francisco (10-2) at New Orleans (10-2), 1 p.m. ET
Inside 49ers numbers: In Week 13, the 49ers held Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson to a career-low 4.6 yards per pass attempt; he entered the game averaging a 10.1 yards per attempt over his previous three games. San Francisco’s secondary leads the NFL in fewest yards per pass attempt allowed (5.5) despite having played games against Jackson, Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers.
Inside 49ers roster: Although San Francisco needed Emmanuel Sanders, the team’s second-round pick Deebo Samuel pick looks like a decision that will benefit many future 49er offenses. The rookie has become the reliable target the franchise hoped 2018 Round 2 choice Dante Pettis would be, with 564 yards and a strong midseason surge aiding Jimmy Garoppolo in the team’s biggest games in six years. Pettis should not be discarded just yet, given his impressive finish to last season, but Samuel has helped the 49ers cover for the second-year wideout’s disappearance and will be a key figure for the revitalized franchise.
Inside Saints numbers: The Saints are excellent producing stops on third down, allowing the sixth-lowest conversion rate (34.4 percent). Cornerback Marshon Lattimore is a driving force behind that success, as he is tied for second among all players with seven passes defended on third down.
Inside Saints roster: New Orleans has never really replaced tight end Jimmy Graham since trading him in 2015, but Jared Cook – his Thanksgiving drops notwithstanding – has proven to be a worthwhile investment at two years and $15 million. Since Drew Brees’ return from injury, the veteran tight end has exceeded 70 yards in three of his four games and has scored twice. Despite being 32, Cook is averaging 45.9 yards per game – the third most of his career – and at least gives defenses more to worry about than Ben Watson, Coby Fleener or Josh Hill did.
Detroit (3-8-1) at Minnesota (8-4), 1 p.m. ET
Inside Lions numbers: Detroit struggles to score without injured QB Matthew Stafford, going 0-4 and averaging 19 points in four games without him after going 3-4-1 and averaging 23.8 offensive points over eight games with him. Jeff Driskel and David Blough are mediocre, combining to average 6.7 yards per attempt (league average 7.3).
Inside Lions roster: Detroit almost has Pittsburgh outflanked on December’s weirdest quarterback starter. While David Blough did go to a Division I-FBS school (Purdue), unlike Devlin Hodges, he spent his first NFL months with the Browns before being traded to the Lions in August. With Jeff Driskel now on IR, Blough has an unusual opportunity to audition to be Matthew Stafford’s backup next year. These final four Lions games may look irrelevant on the surface, but considering Stafford’s back issues the past two years, identifying a future backup will be important.
Inside Vikings numbers: The Vikings are average on the road, ranking 16th in win percentage (.429) and 13th in point differential (+9). Conversely, are dominant at home (5-0), ranking third in point differential (+68) and sitting with the Patriots as the only team yet to lose.
Inside Vikings roster: Many of Minnesota’s recent-years extensions have benefited its defense – from Danielle Hunter to Everson Griffen to Eric Kendricks to Harrison Smith. But the Vikings’ Xavier Rhodes deal appears to have outlived its usefulness, with the $14 million-per-year cornerback exiting Week 13 as Pro Football Focus’ No. 109 player at this position. The Seahawks (badly) burned the former first-round pick and All-Pro for a 60-yard touchdown Monday. One of four first- or second-round corners on Minnesota’s roster, Rhodes, 29, runs the risk of being a trade or cut candidate next year.
Denver (4-8) at Houston (8-4), 1 p.m. ET
Inside Broncos numbers: Denver’s defense is tough to beat in the red zone, allowing the lowest touchdown rate in the league (39.4 percent). The secondary is particularly stout in the red area, allowing a first down or touchdown on a league-low 15.4 percent of red-zone pass plays.
Inside Broncos roster: Denver entered this season with each of its starting defensive linemen in a contract year, but frequent healthy scratch Adam Gotsis has faded out of the long-term picture and Derek Wolfe is now on IR. Wolfe and versatile defensive end Shelby Harris profile as extension candidates, and while a Justin Simmons re-up or a third Chris Harris deal may take precedence, the Broncos’ situation here should mean either Wolfe or Harris stays. Wolfe has said he wants a third Denver deal and made a case as a fit for head coach Vic Fangio, recording a career-high seven sacks pre-injury.
Inside Texans numbers: Deshaun Watson is enjoying unprecedented success to begin his career; he is on track to become the first quarterback in league history to post a 100-plus passer rating in each of his first three seasons. Watson is electric on third down, posting a 109.4 passer rating, helping Houston rank fourth in third- down conversion rate (45.8 percent).
Inside Texans roster: Overlooked amid one of the biggest wins in Texans history: a report indicating they plan to keep their GM-less setup in 2020. The Texans fired GM Brian Gaine in May, after barely a year on the job, and have used head coach Bill O’Brien as the new front office boss. O’Brien (50-42 as Texans HC) has not won enough to hold this job in non-emergency situations and has traded two first-round picks, a second-rounder, two third-rounders and Jadeveon Clowney since August. A GM-less blueprint is incredibly risky for the Texans, who were thought to make another run at Patriots exec Nick Caserio once his contract expires at season’s end.
Baltimore (10-2) at Buffalo (9-3), 1 p.m. ET
Inside Ravens numbers: Baltimore is on track to set Super Bowl-era records for yards per rush rush attempt (5.6) and total rushing yards (on pace for 3,325). All four of the Ravens’ remaining games are against teams ranked in the top half of defensive DVOA (Bills, Jets, Browns, Steelers).
Inside Ravens roster: Justin Tucker is the NFL’s highest-paid kicker, making $5 million annually. That fits nicely into the kicker price range, but with the salary barely $200,000 per year more than the second-highest-paid kicker, the Ravens have an incredible bargain. The most accurate kicker in NFL history just made perhaps the season’s most important field goal – his 49-yarder in the rain to beat the 49ers – and is on his way to what would be a record (for pure kickers) fourth first-team All-Pro honor. In a year featuring widespread kicker unreliability, the Ravens’ Tucker contract has never been more important.
Inside Bills numbers: The defense is superb, ranking third in fewest points allowed per drive (1.25). The secondary and pass rush have worked together beautifully, as the Bills are tied for second in passes defended (69) and eighth in sack rate (8.1 percent). That combination has Buffalo ranked third in opponent passer rating (78.5) and net yards per pass attempt (5.1).
Inside Bills roster: Josh Allen has accounted for 16 touchdowns and has thrown one interception since Week 7, and Buffalo’s offseason additions have undeniably aided his development. John Brown leads the Bills in receiving, and Cole Beasley has given the improving quarterback a consistent target. Signed for barely $7 million per year, Beasley is averaging a career-best 52.9 yards per game. Brown and Beasley’s combined salaries match ex-Bill Sammy Watkins’, and the lower-profile new tandem is on pace to give the Bills two 800-yard receivers for the first time since 2003.
Cincinnati (1-11) at Cleveland (5-7), 1 p.m. ET
Inside Bengals numbers: Defensive strides are being made in Cincinnati, as the Bengals have allowed just 13 points per game over the past three weeks. Improved pass defense is the key, as the Bengals have yielded a passer rating of just 82.8 over the last three weeks, after giving up a mark of 107.4 over their first nine games.
Inside Bengals roster: Cincinnati has gotten little from its past three first-round picks this season, with Jonah Williams (2019) out all season and John Ross (2017) missing much of it. Hope remains for each, however. But the Bengals’ 2018 first-rounder, center-guard Billy Price, is on the verge of “bust” status. The Bengals benched the ex-Ohio State standout again Sunday, replacing him at right guard with fourth-round rookie Michael Jordan. This came a week after Price was set to be replaced at guard by the now-injured Alex Redmond and months after he lost his center job in training camp.
Inside Browns numbers: Baker Mayfield has dipped significantly in his second season, ranking last among qualifiers in passer rating (79.9). He has struggled mightily to get on the same page with WR Odell Beckham, who is posting career-lows in receiving yards per game (67.1), receiving touchdowns per game (0.17), and catch rate (55.3 percent).
Inside Browns roster: An overmatched Freddie Kitchens and a regressing Mayfield are essentially wasting a year of Beckham prime. A player who once carried the 2016 Giants to the playoffs and may still be the game’s most talented receiver ranks 29th in the league, trailing four tight ends, in yards per game. The Browns owe Beckham a non-guaranteed $14 million salary next year, and while that setup makes him a valuable trade asset, Cleveland’s next play-caller must get more from the 27-year-old star.
Washington (3-9) at Green Bay (8-4), 1 p.m. ET
Inside Redskins numbers: Washington would like to see more flashes from rookie QB Dwayne Haskins, who has thrown two touchdowns and six interceptions. He has averaged only 6.0 yards per attempt over his 133 pass attempts. Better protection would go a long way, as Haskins has taken a high sack rate of 14.2 percent (22 sacks total).
Inside Redskins roster: It’s safe to say Quinton Dunbar has outplayed his contract. The Redskins did well to extend him at $3.4 million average annual value on New Year’s Day 2018 – the first day the former UDFA was extension-eligible – and have seen the fifth-year defender spend most of the season rated as Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 cornerback. Head coach Bill Callahan benched $15M-per-year corner Josh Norman, a surefire cut candidate after this season, and the Redskins have won two straight games with Dunbar and Fabian Moreau working as their boundary corners. Expect Dunbar, whose contract runs through 2020, to seek a raise soon.
Inside Packers numbers: Green Bay’s passing attack is disappointingly average outside of the red zone, ranking 15th in yards per pass play (7.5) and 19th in passing first-down rate (32.2 percent). Inside the red zone has been a different story, as the Packers rank second in touchdown rate (70 percent) and eighth in passing conversion rate (36.8 percent).
Inside Packers roster: Even though Allen Lazard caught three passes for 103 yards and a touchdown in Sunday’s snow game in East Rutherford, N.J.,, Green Bay does not have a reliable pass-catcher beyond Davante Adams. The Packers let Randall Cobb defect to the Cowboys in free agency, and he’s outplayed each of Green Bay’s younger auxiliary wideouts. With Jimmy Graham also a shell of his Pro Bowl self, GM Brian Gutekunst must address the team’s pass-catching situation in 2020 after ignoring it this year.
L.A. Chargers (4-8) at Jacksonville (4-8), 4:05 p.m. ET
Inside Chargers numbers: L.A. has a 2-8 record in games decided by seven points or less, with three consecutive one-score losses entering Week 14. Los Angeles’ total of eight losses by seven points or less is tied for the most through a team’s first 12 games in NFL history (along with the 1993 Patriots and 2001 Lions).
Inside Chargers roster: Not much has gone well around him, but 15th-year linebacker Thomas Davis has shown he can still play. Signed to a two-year, $10.5 million deal in advance of his age-36 season, Davis has 96 tackles – 35 more than any other Charger. After considering retirement while still in Carolina, it is entirely possible he will be kept on Los Angeles’ payroll through the 2020 season. Not many off-ball ‘backers have been starters at age 37; London Fletcher in 2013 serves as the most recent example.
Inside Jaguars numbers: Nick Foles was highly ineffective after returning from injury, averaging 5.1 net yards per attempt and tossing just two touchdowns over 109 attempts (1.8 percent touchdown rate). Rookie Gardner Minshew, who remains 16th in net yards per attempt (6.1) and 17th in passer rating (91.1), should provide a boost as he makes his final pitch to become Jacksonville’s quarterback of the future.
Inside Jaguars roster: Going back to Minshew does not necessarily doom Foles in Jacksonville, but signing off on the Foles deal a year after authorizing the Blake Bortles extension does not look good for the Jaguars. The bizarre Bortles reinvestment tagged the franchise with $16.5 million in 2019 dead money, which forced cap-casualty cuts of starting defenders, and the Jags proceeded to give Foles $50M guaranteed despite perhaps bidding against themselves. Head coach Doug Marrone might not be the only scapegoat for the past two years; GM David Caldwell’s job could be in jeopardy.
Pittsburgh (7-5) at Arizona (3-8-1), 4:25 p.m. ET
Inside Steelers numbers: The Steelers’ pass rush is almost unstoppable in Pittsburgh, leading the NFL with 5.0 sacks per game and a 12.7 percent sack rate. The record for sacks at home in a season is 41, held by the 1985 Los Angeles Raiders. Conversely, the pass rush ranks 29th in sacks per game on the road (1.6).
Inside Steelers roster: Though they are winning games with a rookie UDFA from Division I-FCS Samford at quarterback, the Steelers still need their running game more than most contenders. James Conner has now missed seven games since becoming the starter last season, and he remains questionable going into Week 14. While he’s fared worse than his Pro Bowl 2018, Conner still represents an upgrade on the Benny Snell-Jaylen Samuels tandem. Conner’s injuries will affect his value when it comes time to see if the Steelers are up for negotiating an extension with Le’Veon Bell’s successor next year.
Inside Cardinals numbers: Arizona must get Kyler Murray back on track. He has averaged a minuscule 4.7 yards per attempt over his past two games (finishing with under 5.0 yards per attempt in each game). Getting Christian Kirk more involved needs to be a focal point. Kirk has averaged just 4.5 catches for 32 yards over his last two games, following a six-catch, 138-yard, three-touchdown breakout in Tampa Bay four weeks ago.
Inside Cardinals roster: The Cardinals, who have the NFL’s worst pass defense, allowed embattled Rams QB Jared Goff to throw for 424 yards in three quarters in Week 13. The secondary’s leader, Patrick Peterson, has struggled since his return from a six-game PED suspension but recently spoke of a desire for another Cardinals extension. Do the Cards want to pay top dollar for Peterson’s early 30s? By resisting trade interest the past two years, it would seem they would have to negotiate with the signed-through-2020 cornerback next year. Regardless of how this process goes, Arizona needs plenty of secondary help.
Tennessee (7-5) at Oakland (6-6), 4:25 p.m. ET
Inside Titans numbers: The Titans are 5-1 with an average of 29.7 points per game under Ryan Tannehill, versus 2-4 with an average of 14.7 points per game under Marcus Mariota. Tannehill leads qualified quarterbacks in passer rating (113.9) and yards per attempt (9.1)
Inside Titans roster: Tennessee interestingly did not pick up Jack Conklin’s fifth-year option in May, putting him on track for 2020 free agency. The right tackle who missed time in 2018 because two knee injuries has been a key part of Tennessee’s bludgeoning ground attack, helping Derrick Henry become a Pro Bowl candidate. The 2016 first-round pick (Pro Football Focus’ No. 16 overall tackle) resides in good position, after Trent Brown, Ja’Wuan James and Lane Johnson transformed the right tackle market this year. With Henry also a free agent next year, the Titans have some major decisions forthcoming.
Inside Raiders numbers: The Raiders will be thrilled to return home, where their 5-1 record is tied for third best in the league. Derek Carr, who posted a 62.7 passer rating over Oakland’s two-game road trip, will be looking to continue the success he had in the team’s three-game homestand from Weeks 9 to 11 (3-0 record, 109.2 passer rating, one interception over 92 passes).
Inside Raiders roster: Despite his strong debut that produced a win in Indianapolis, Trevor Davis received his walking papers barely two months after the Raiders traded for him. The return man/supporting cast wide receiver is now a Dolphin after a waiver claim. The Raiders have shuffled their receiver group many times this season and will enter the offseason with a glaring need. Fortunately, Oakland has two first-round picks in a draft expected to feature one of the best receiver talent pools in many years.
Full article here https://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/nfl_week_14_matchups_an_insiders_guide/s1_13132_30712250
By: Michael Nania and Sam Robinson
