Written by Pablo Figueroa at Sporting Charts
After the grueling 256 games of the NFL regular season are now in the books, we are left with only a brief 11-game stint that will help us determine the 50th Super Bowl champion. As much as the season can be considered weird, we are now presented with another unique set of circumstances, as the opening playoff weekend includes four games in which the road team is favored. Three of them are repeat matchups that came up in the regular season, so there is an additional layer of intrigue to be added.
Without further ado, here are Sporting Charts’ picks and preview for each Wild Card game.
Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) @ Houston Texans (9-7)
Saturday, ESPN 4:20 ET
Line: Chiefs -3.5, O/U: 40
Through six games, both of these teams were sunk in the bottom of their divisions and far away from the playoff picture. At 1-5, the Chiefs were long shots, while at 2-4, Houston’s only hope hinged on their weak division to have a shot. This is where both squads started turning it around, with the Texans taking advantage of Indianapolis’ rash of injuries, while the Chiefs became one of the best teams in the NFL with a closing 10-0 mark. This level of domination makes Kansas City a rightful favorite, but how will this game play out in the end?
Despite their differences in style and consistency, this matchup presents a similar approach in statistical profiles. Both squads finished in the league’s top 10 in defense and turnover differential, relying on their defensive units to offset their limited offensive weapons. The Chiefs count on the ultimate “game manager” in Alex Smith, who quietly had the best season of his career but still thrives on short throws. Meanwhile, the Texans survived despite using 4 different starting quarterbacks, and now have the best of them all, Brian Hoyer, available for the postseason.
To continue with the similarities, Houston went 9-7 against the spread, just a tad better than KC’s 8-8 mark. Houston’s 5-3 home record is identical to Kansas City’s road mark, while their regular season meeting came on Week 1 and saw the Chiefs beat Houston by a misleading 27-20 score, which began with the Chiefs taking a comfortable 27-6 lead before the Texans stepped things up in garbage time. The Chiefs lead the all-time series 4-3, and have taken the last two by a combined 8 points.
This will mark Andy Reid’s 21st career playoff game, and while his 10-10 record is not too sparkly, his experience over first-time Bill O’Brien can also be considered a big advantage for the Chiefs. Houston has JJ Watt and a scary defense, but the Chiefs can match that and present a better offense with more playmakers, which should be enough to stave off any potential Houston comeback. The opening Saturday game is usually scheduled for the less attractive game on the slate, but this one should be hard-fought and full of strategy, with the Chiefs coming out on top.
Pick: Chiefs -3.5
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