Written by Neil Greenberg at Washington Post.com
Each week, Neil Greenberg makes NFL game predictions based on a multitude of factors that will have an impact on game day. These include efficiency stats such as success rates, yards per play and yards allowed per play, plus points scored based on strength of opponent. Point spreads are the consensus odds from multiple sports books in Vegas.
Last week’s record against the spread: 7-8-1
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Winner: Indianapolis Colts, 61.6 percent
Pick: Indianapolis Colts -2.5
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-4.5)
Winner: New England Patriots, 64.3 percent
Pick: New England Patriots -4.5
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (-5)
Winner: Houston Texans, 65.3 percent
Pick: Houston Texans -5
Detroit Lions (-3) @ Chicago Bears
Winner: Detroit Lions, 57.8 percent
Pick: Chicago Bears +3
Seattle Seahawks (-3) @ New York Jets
Winner: Seattle Seahawks, 64.8 percent
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -3
Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
Winner: Baltimore Ravens, 64.1 percent
Pick: Baltimore Ravens -3.5
Carolina Panthers (-3) @ Atlanta Falcons
Winner: Carolina Panthers, 58.8 percent
Pick: Atlanta Falcons +3
Cleveland Browns @ Washington Redskins (-7.5)
Winner: Washington Redskins, 60.4 percent
Pick: Cleveland Browns +7.5
This was supposed to be Robert Griffin III’s return to Washington, but instead the Redskins’ defense will face Browns rookie Cody Kessler after Griffin suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 1 against the Eagles.
Kessler, who Browns left tackle Joe Thomas called “amazingly unflappable,” has seen his completion percentage dip from 68.8 to 58.8 percent against a pass rush and 54.5 percent against the blitz, which could be good news for a Redskins defensive line that ranks 13th in adjusted sack rate (6.6 percent after adjusting for down, distance and opponent).
This is also a great time for Washington’s red-zone offense, which has been at the crux of its offensive woes, to get back on track. The Browns allow 5.67 points per trip to the red zone, the fourth-most in the NFL.
Denver Broncos (-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Winner: Denver Broncos, 66.4 percent
Pick: Denver Broncos -3
Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (-8)
Winner: Arizona Cardinals, 53.1 percent
Pick: Los Angeles Rams +8
New Orleans Saints @ San Diego Chargers (-3.5)
Winner: San Diego Chargers, 64.8 percent
Pick: San Diego Chargers -3.5
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