NBA Contenders and Dark Horses


Written by Tim Bontemps at Washington Post.com

For those of you who don’t feel the need to watch the NBA’s regular season, or don’t have an interest in following the ins and outs of the sport over the next eight or nine months, we have a solution: a full look into the future!

No, this isn’t quite like “Back to the Future,” where Biff Tannen gives his younger self a sports almanac with every outcome for a half-century listed in it.

Instead, it’s simply The Washington Post’s best guess as to how the season will play out, including order of finish for all six divisions, the playoffs in both conferences, and who will emerge as this season’s NBA champion:

Divisions (teams listed in order of predicted finish; * denotes playoff team)

Atlantic

Toronto Raptors*
Boston Celtics*
New York Knicks
Brooklyn Nets
Philadelphia 76ers

Toronto and Boston will likely find themselves competing not only for the top spot in the Atlantic this season, but also, along with Cleveland, for two of the top three spots in the Eastern Conference. The fact the Raptors and Celtics will each get 12 games against the hapless Knicks, Nets and 76ers should allow them to rack up a bunch of victories, helping both get over 50 wins for the season. If — and it’s a big if — the Knicks are able to stay healthy and get bounce back seasons from Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah, that same advantage of getting eight games against the Nets and Sixers could wind up helping them squeeze into one of the final East playoff spots. The assumption here, though, is that those rosy scenarios of health and effectiveness for the Knicks don’t come to pass.

Cleveland Cavaliers*
Detroit Pistons*
Indiana Pacers*
Chicago Bulls
Milwaukee Bucks

Cleveland remains the class of the Eastern Conference, and even as the Cavaliers are expected to hold back in an attempt to be as healthy as possible for the playoffs, they should easily finish first in the Central. The Pistons potentially had the ability to move into the low 50s in wins and possibly challenge Cleveland if the Cavaliers did really start to coast, but losing Reggie Jackson for at least the first several weeks of the season because of knee tendinitis should kill the chances of that happening. Indiana remains one of the harder teams in the league to figure out, given how radically the team has changed this offseason, but the Pacers should have enough talent to slip into one of the final couple of playoff spots in the East regardless. Chicago and Milwaukee both could potentially push for one of those spots, as well.

Southeast

Atlanta Hawks*
Washington Wizards*
Charlotte Hornets*
Orlando Magic
Miami Heat

Last season, three teams — Atlanta, Miami and Charlotte — tied with 48 wins, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if a similar scenario happened this year. Losing Al Horford and replacing him with Dwight Howard should wind up being more of a draw for Atlanta than many expect, and as a result Atlanta seems to be the odds-on bet to emerge from the regular season as the winner of the Southeast. It could just as easily be Washington, however, if John Wall and Bradley Beal can stay on the court for 70-plus games — and avoid getting angry at one another on a regular basis when they are out there together. The Hornets will likely make it back to the playoffs again, but will struggle to reach the heights they did last year after losing Jeremy Lin, Courtney Lee and Al Jefferson in free agency. Orlando has a roster full of ill-fitting pieces under new coach Frank Vogel that should be able to be effective defensively, but could be awful on offense, and the Heat essentially didn’t replace Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, and there are rumblings of them moving on from Goran Dragic in an attempt to completely bottom out.

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