Written by Grant Brisbee at SB Nation
Every year. Every freaking year. I’m told to make predictions, and I do them like a good employee, and every year I bork the American League. Oh, the National League is easy. Get the Mets and Nationals up near the top here, the Cubs at top with the Cards and Pirates close by, with the Dodgers and Giants in some order, pick a mystery team that might contend (Marlins), and don’t worry too much about the order. The principles are probably going to be right.
The American League, though. If the standings hold, this would be the third straight season in which I’ve predicted exactly zero of the AL division winners correctly. Part of that is a user error. Part of that is the AL is formless chaos, where the Royals are suddenly excellent until they aren’t, where the A’s vacillate between 90 wins and 90 losses, where the Red Sox are often masters of turning preseason goodwill into injuries, plague, and sizable fires.
Right now, the Orioles, Indians, and Rangers all have sizable division leads. I picked them to finish fourth, second, and third, respectively, and now I have regrets. Shouldn’t I have seen them coming? It’s time to play “How bad should I feel?”
How bad should I feel about screwing up my Orioles prediction?
Why were you skeptical about them?
Because Ubaldo Jimenez was supposed to be a key cog in the rotation. Because they replaced Wei-Yin Chen (usually good) with Yovani Gallardo (reliably competent with a capital meh). Because they needed starting pitchers and outfielders and somehow navigated an entire offseason filled with starting pitchers and outfielders without making a single splashy move.
What didn’t you see coming?
Manny Machado emerging from his nice-young-player chrysalis and turning into one of the five best players in the world. Chris Tillman returning to form. Hyun-soo Kim being the steal of the offseason, but only if Mark Trumbo wasn’t more of a steal. Jonathan Schoop developing. Kevin Gausman being left the hell alone in the starting rotation. The power of the dinger.
The power of the dinger.
Oh, power of the dinger, I beseech you not to be angry at me. Please accept this pile of Rob Deer cards as an offering, and let the fires of the dinger volcano consume them as a lesson to us all.
How bad should you feel?
Not very! The rotation is still a mess behind Tillman and Gausman, and it’s not like either of them have been Kershaw-like models of consistency over the last four weeks. Man cannot live on dingers alone.
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