Written by Justin Kelly at The Sports Quotient
After an impressive win over the Atlanta Falcons at the Georgia Dome, the Vikings are in sole possession of first place in the NFC North. Before this game, some estimates put their playoff odds near 70 percent. Compounding their victory and the Packers’ Thanksgiving loss, the odds are even better. Of their five remaining games, the Vikings are likely to win at least two (specifically, at home against the Bears and Giants). If they finish at 10-6, they’ll make the playoffs.
But how dangerous is this team? Will their playoff berth turn into a playoff run? Their 8-3 record suggests that they’re one of the top teams in the NFC, along with the Cardinals and the Panthers. Records, however, can be misleading. To gauge Minnesota’s true ability and potential to upset the NFC leaders, let’s take a deeper look at performance on both sides of the ball.
1) Offense: Middling
Despite having one of the best records in the NFL, Minnesota ranks 24th in points scored. In offensive efficiency, they rank 22nd.
Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has played well in a few big games, including a respectable performance against the rival Packers, but overall, he has been average. His 62.1 QBR is 13th in the league. Football Outsiders’ DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) has him at 26th, as does DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). These two stats measure overall value and value per play; evidently, Bridgewater has been subpar in both respects. To beat teams with Carson Palmer, Cam Newton, and Aaron Rodgers, the Vikings would need Bridgewater to at least match them. Advanced metrics say this is a long shot.
Of course, RB Adrian Peterson has been a workhorse. He leads the league in yards (1006) and is second in total attempts (208). His ability is unquestioned, but contrary to popular belief, a strong running game is neither necessary nor sufficient for success in the NFL. From Football Outsiders, “You run when you win, not win when you run…There is no correlation whatsoever between giving your running backs a lot of carries early in the game and winning the game. Just running the ball is not going to help a team score; it has to run successfully.” Successful running most often occurs without eight men in the box, but the Vikings lack the legitimate aerial attack needed to soften up defenses.
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