Written by James Herbert at CBSSports.com
NBA predictions are a fool’s errand in October, and any honest preseason prognosticator would admit that there’s no way to know which mid-tier teams will exceed expectations and which will sink because of injuries, chemistry or any other number of factors. This year, though, is particularly tough. As easy as it is to identify the top teams in the West and the East, it’s almost impossible to figure out who is going to occupy the No. 4 to No. 8 spots in each conference’s playoff picture. With that in mind, here are the best- and worst-case scenarios for 10 particularly confusing teams:
Chicago Bulls
Floor: Chicago completely falls apart. When Dwyane Wade, Rajon Rondo and Jimmy Butler fail to jell, the front office revisits its draft-night discussions about a full teardown, deciding at the deadline to trade Butler and start over. The Bulls essentially tank, and everybody feels sorry for Taj Gibson.
Ceiling: Chicago’s plan proves to be just crazy enough to work, as Rondo and Wade’s experience and basketball IQ outweigh their lack of shooting range. The two veterans figure out how to complement Butler by cutting away from the ball and focusing their energy on having bounce-back seasons defensively. Nikola Miroticfinds consistency and young role players Doug McDermott, Bobby Portis, Jerian Grant, Denzel Valentine and Cristiano Felicio all flourish. Just like when Tom Thibodeau was around, the Bulls win 45-plus games.
Oklahoma city Thunder
Floor: Without Kevin Durant, the Thunder are exposed for their lack of playmakers, floor spacing and defenders with size. Sure, Russell Westbrook gets his numbers, but neither Victor Oladipo nor Steven Adams emerges as much of a threat in the halfcourt. When OKC misses the playoffs, it suddenly finds itself in a precarious place, needing to construct a totally different type of team heading into the 2017-18 season, after which Westbrook can become an unrestricted free agent.
Ceiling: Westbrook wins MVP, Oladipo and Adams earn All-Star consideration, Enes Kanter improves defensively, Kyle Singler and Andre Roberson shoot consistently well and Domantas Sabonis and Cameron Payne prove to be the steals of the past two drafts. The Thunder exceed expectations, fighting for home-court advantage in the West despite Durant’s defection. This makes them an attractive destination forBlake Griffin next summer.
New York Knicks
Floor: Despite a splashy summer, the Knicks once again fail to deliver on their promise of returning to the playoffs. Predictably, they deal with significant injuries, and their lack of depth ends up costing them. Fans lament that the front office gave up so much for a one-year Derrick Rose rental, especially as rumors about president Phil Jackson returning to Los Angeles intensify. Instead of ascending to stardom,Kristaps Porzingis stagnates, struggling to find his place as Rose and Carmelo Anthony dominate the ball.
Ceiling: Porzingis emerges as a pillar of New York’s new attack, proving to be so dangerous as a screen-setter and spot-up shooter that coach Jeff Hornacek all but disposes of the triangle offense. Rose and backup Brandon Jennings play with pace, freedom and efficiency. Anthony builds on his feel-good, Olympic-winning summer. Joakim Noah stays healthy, wins Defensive Player of the Year and everybody writes that, if there was a Comeback Player of the Year award, he’d have won that, too. Thanks to an injured opponent in the Knicks’ second-round series, they advance to the conference finals for the first time in 16 years.
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