Written by Chip Patterson at CBSSports.com
Picking college football games against the spread is a battle we are all destined to lose at some point. Even the sharpest sharps go cold and those stone-cold locks will break the other way when you are relying on the action of 18-22 year-olds exerting themselves physically over a 3-to-4 hour weekend window. Trends, intimate knowledge of the rosters, schemes and latest news can improve your shot at making winning picks, but sometimes you just have to follow your gut with these things.
Sometimes I’m right. I can also be wrong, of course, but I’m going to be here every Wednesday with picks against the spread for the entire SEC slate. Expect some ATS trends to sway my judgment as much as inside information or the old-fashioned hunch.
This week finds us licking our wounds from the worst performance since starting this column two years ago. Though 52-49 overall in my Top 25 picks (one game out of first place, currently occupied by colleague and picks podcast rival Tom Fornelli), my showing here for SEC games has been awful. So this week we’ve lightened the tone a little with emphasis on entertainment, because our faith in the picks is wavering and this is, after all, “for entertainment purposes only.”
Last week: 0-for-8 | 2016 season: 18-for-28 (39 percent)
LSU (-2.5) at Florida: LSU lit up the scoreboard with a new offense against Missouri, and the Ed Orgeron mojo has the public pushing this line in the Tigers’ favor. This annual cross-division rivalry has a history of getting weird, and the combination of LSU’s team-in-transition and a banged up Florida team makes any result seem likely. The Gators’ defense has done a great job rising up during opponents’ scoring opportunities, with the Tennessee loss as the only real blemish on its resume. I attribute some of LSU’s success on offense last week to a surprise factor and expect Florida to be more prepared than Missouri on Saturday. That said, I think the “bounce” factor lasts just one more game for the Bayou Bengals as depth becomes an issue in the second half of a hard fought game in The Swamp. Pick: Tigers -2.5
Soundtrack: “Look-ka Py Py” by the Meters
Auburn (-3) at Mississippi State: Dan Mullen dropped his first three games against Auburn but has been 3-1 since, with the only loss coming in 2013 to the eventual SEC champions. Oddsmakers may see an Auburn team that got its offense on track against ULM but I still see a middling SEC West team going on the road. I’ll take the points. Pick: Bulldogs +3
Soundtrack: Mississippi’s own Big K.R.I.T., with “Country Rap Tunes”
Tennessee (+6.5) at Texas A&M: In expert picks, we had to pick this at 7.5 and I sided with Tennessee, but at 6.5, I’ll take the Aggies. Consider my flip-flopping on the hook to be a sign that this game is better played on the total than the point spread. The Vols are capable of winning this game but it will require a much-improved performance from their hobbled defense. Pick: Aggies -6.5
Soundtrack: The 12th Man, “Aggie War Hymn”
Vanderbilt (+3) at Kentucky: One week after going toe-to-toe with Alabama(for a quarter, at least), here comes another hard-hitting defense. Vanderbilt should find Kentucky to be the friendliest defense they’ll face in the division and Ralph Webb could have a big day. I like the Dores to not only cover but knock off the Wildcats on the road. Pick: Commodores +3
Soundtrack: The Commodores (duh), “Sail On”
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