Written by Heather Dinich at ESPN.com
The College Football Playoff selection committee showed us Tuesday that a team can drop from No. 11 to out of the rankings entirely with one bad loss, as Florida did.
It showed us that a top-four team can suffer a bad loss to an unranked opponent, as Texas A&M did to Mississippi State, and fall just four spots because of the high regard the committee has for a head-to-head result, such as the Aggies’ win over No. 9 Auburn.
More than anything, Tuesday’s rankings were a reminder that there are 12 people — not computers — deciding the top four teams in the country, and quite simply, they are free to change their minds on a weekly basis (hello, No. 4 Washington).
All the more reason for the top contenders to leave no doubt they deserve a spot in a semifinal game by avoiding an upset with just three weeks remaining in the regular season. No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Clemson and No. 3 Michigan are all playing unranked opponents. No. 4 Washington is playing a ranked opponent only because the committee put USC in at No. 20 this week, and deservedly so, after the Trojans have reeled off five straight wins.
No. 5 Ohio State faces an unranked opponent, and so does No. 6 Louisville. Each of the top six teams, with the exception of Washington, are favored by at least 20 points.
So what happens if — gasp! — there’s an upset this week?
Let’s take a look at the possible scenarios:
If No. 1 Alabama loses to Mississippi State: Not going to happen, but if it does, Alabama remains in the same must-win situation it’s in now, meaning it has to beat Auburn in the Iron Bowl on Nov. 26. Regardless of what happens to Alabama on Saturday, if Auburn wins out, the Tigers will win the SEC West. One loss didn’t kept the Tide out of the playoff in each of the past two years, and it would not do so this year. But a loss could drop Alabama out of the top four next week, just as it did Texas A&M. Ohio State (No. 10 Penn State) and Louisville (to No. 2 Clemson) would each have a better loss, and who you lose to matters. That’s why the Aggies, having lost to the Tide, were ahead of Washington last week, and why Ohio State didn’t get the same treatment Tuesday. Then again, one thing that hasn’t been up for debate in the committee room is Alabama’s status as No. 1. It might not drop out of the top four at all.
If No. 2 Clemson loses to Pitt: The Tigers would still be on the fast track to the ACC championship game, and they would still have the head-to-head win over Louisville — two criteria in the committee’s protocol that would be strikes against Louisville. It’s unlikely Clemson would fall behind Louisville, especially considering the committee didn’t drop No. 8 Texas A&M behind No. 9 Auburn on Tuesday in spite of a bad loss, specifically because it wanted to continue to honor the Aggies’ win in their head-to-head matchup. The question is whether Clemson would fall behind Ohio State. The Tigers would have better wins than the Buckeyes (Auburn, No. 18 Florida State and Louisville) but a worse loss.
