D-Backs Taking Risk With Zack Greinke Mega Deal, but Not Done Yet


Written by Joseph Coblitz at The Comeback

While considered a non-contender by many in the league this off-season, the Arizona Diamondbacks have been consistently trying to improve their team, particularly the starting rotation. Of known interest were Shelby Miller of the Braves (for whom Atlanta wanted A.J. Pollock, which was an easy no for Arizona) and Johnny Cueto, offered a six-year, $120M deal that was declined.

Greinke was a significantly higher target than the Diamondbacks’ first choice and thus received a substantial amount more, an MLB-record per year value of $34M per season and$206M total over six years. Some of this cost has been deferred to future years.

Arizona was ninth in MLB in OPS and eighth in runs scored last season, but 19th in runs allowed and its starting pitchers in particular were 26th in the majors in OPS allowed. More than any other position, the starting rotation was the obvious target for improvement. 12 pitchers made starts for the Diamondbacks in 2015 and only Patrick Corbin (3.60 ERA, 78 K’s in 85 IP) and rookie Robbie Ray (3.52 ERA, 119 K’s in 127.2 IP) were good enough to guarantee a rotation spot for next season and neither were good enough to grab the title of ace.

The Diamondbacks do have a few other options, including the young Archie Bradley, Chase Anderson and Rubby De La Rosa. But obviously no one compares to Greinke, the second-best pitcher in the NL, according to the BBWAA. For those who missed the 2015 season, Greinke posted a 1.66 ERA in 222.2 innings, striking out 200 and winning 19 for a WAR of 9.3.

If there is one problem with Greinke, it is that he is already 31 years old with over 2,000 innings under his belt already. But unlike many pitchers, he has improved since turning 30. This past season was his best since winning the AL Cy Young Award in 2009 with Kansas City, and his last three years have been nearly as good as any three in his career with 17.5 WAR between them (19.2 WAR between 2008-10).

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