Written by Chip Paterson at CBSSports.com
Picking college football games against the spread is a battle we are all destined to lose at some point. Even the sharpest sharps go cold and those stone-cold locks will break the other way when you are relying on the action of 18-to-22 year-olds exerting themselves physically over a 3-4 hour weekend window. Trends, intimate knowledge of the rosters, schemes and latest news can improve your shot at making winning picks, but sometimes you just have to follow your gut with these things.
Sometimes I’m right. I can also be wrong, of course, but I’m going to be here every Wednesday with picks against the spread for the entire SEC slate. Expect some ATS trends to sway my judgment as much as inside information or the old-fashioned hunch.
Last week: 5-1 | 2016 SEC season: 29-34 (46 percent)
Kentucky (+5.5) at Missouri: Each of the last two seasons has involved Kentucky getting to five wins before falling short of bowl eligibility. Last week’s last-second win against Mississippi State changed the math for the Wildcats, now needing just two victories — FCS Austin Peay and one SEC win as the most likely scenario — to make the postseason for the first time under Mark Stoops. We took Missouri to cover as a home favorite last week againstMiddle Tennessee and got burned. Hell hath no fury like an college football picker scorned. Pick: Wildcats +5.5
Florida (-7.5) vs. Georgia — Jacksonville: The Gators probably think if they don’t beat themselves they can win this game with just a few big plays on offense. Georgia probably knows it can avoid Florida’s lockdown secondary by using tight ends, fullbacks and the play-action pass to pick on a group of linebackers that may be missing Jarrad Davis. Both teams are more than happy to punt their way through the first half, limit mistakes at all costs and keep this game tight into the fourth quarter. It’s technically not the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party anymore; expect the world’s largest outdoor punt party instead. Pick: Georgia +7.5
Auburn (-4.5) at Ole Miss: For the second straight week, we ask: What do the Rebels have left? Ole Miss welcomes a white-hot Auburn team that Gus Malzahn says is only getting better with each week. The Rebels, meanwhile, looked terrible defending the run last week at LSU. Auburn has covered four straight games, is 6-1 against the number on the season and probably a touchdown better than Ole Miss right now. I think the Rebels don’t have enough depth on defense to ride the home field atmosphere to a cover or upset win as that Auburn ground game continues to pile up the yards here in the second half of the season. Pick: Tigers -4.5
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