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College Football Bowl Season: Preview of the First Weekend of Action

December is the best time of year. As a fat guy, the cold weather ensures that I’m not sweating 24/7. Add in the fact that all of the holiday’s around this time, and it’s no wonder why the end of December is the “most wonderful time of the year”. Yet, if you are a football fan, it’s even better. The NFL is winding down, and every game is a slugfest. Better still, the college football season moves into it’s Bowl Season, where college teams from across the country travel to warmer destinations to play an exhibition game against some of the best competition in the country. If you’re unlucky, you go to Detroit, New York or Idaho, all frigid options when compared to the Bahamas’ Bowl. Before Bowl Season starts, we here at InhaleSports are going to provide a preview for many of the games, including the New Years Six Games and the College Football Playoff. Today, we start with the first day of Bowl Season. Let’s go:

New Mexico Bowl; Albuquerque, New Mexico, 12/17/2016 2:00PM:

University of New Mexico (-7) vs University of Texas San Antonio

First game we have, the New Mexico Lobos taking on the UTSA Roadrunners. The line opens with the Lobos a touchdown favorite. The Lobos are currently 8-4 and hold a share of of the Mountain Division title for the Mountain West Conference. The Roadrunners are second in Conference USA, with a 6-6 record.

This game should be an offensive battle, with UNM relying heavily on their rushing attack, with two running-backs totaling over a thousand yards each. Additionally, the Lobos have almost four times as many rushing yards as passing yards. Senior Teriyon Gipson and sophomore Tyrone Owens both are dangerous with the ball in their hands, each averaging over 90 yards rushing per game. For UTSA, their offense, while a little less potent, is still decent, albeit much more balanced. Junior quarterback, Dalton Strum, has been efficient this year, completing 58 % of his passes, for 2052 yards and 18 touchdowns, compared to only five interceptions.

UTSA averages about 30 points per game, but have only beaten one team with a winning record in the FBS (Football Bowl Series). In addition, UTSA has not beaten a team from a Power Five Conference, losing to both Arizona State and Texas A&M throughout the season.The Lobos average a higher points per game (PPG), scoring an average of 38 points per game, but UNM also hasn’t beaten at Power Five team, having lost their sole game against a Power Five team, Rutgers.

Defensively, UNM is somewhat explosive, having created 12 total turnovers, with three of those going all the way back to the house. UTSA, is more opportunistic, having created 18 total turnovers, but they are not as explosive, having no defensive touchdowns this year. Both teams are similar in terms of pass rush, with UTSA having 26 QB Sacks, while UNM has 27. The difference, though, is that UTSA has given up 43 sacks to opponents in that same time frame. In comparison, New Mexico has only given up 11 in their 12 games this season.

Ultimately, I think New Mexico pulls this game out, and has the first official win of Bowl Seasons, in an offensive showcase for both teams.

Predicted score: 34-21 University of New Mexico

Las Vegas Bowl; Las Vegas, Nevada, 12/17/2016 3:30PM:

University of Houston (-3) Vs San Diego State University

Our second matchup of Bowl Season pairs up the University of Houston Cougars facing the San Diego State Aztecs. The Cougars are currently 9-3 and have had an amazing season, shocking Louisville and Oklahoma this season, both who were in the AP Top 10 at the time. Unfortunately, all three of the Cougar’s losses were in conference, meaning they are actually in fifth place within the American Athletic Conference (AAC).  The Aztecs, have also had a good season for themselves, going 10-3 and winning the Mountain West Conference Championship. Their star running back, Donnel Pumphrey,  has over 200o yards rushing this season alone. He also sits at #2 in rushing yards in a college career with 6,290 yards. Should he rush for over 100 yards in the bowl game, the senior running back will be in sole possession of the NCAA career rushing record. Don’t think it will be easy though, as Houston is a tough defensive team.

Even without their former head coach, Tom Herman, who left Houston to take the same job at University of Texas, the Houston team is stout defensively. Against both Louisville and Oklahoma, the Cougars held their opponents to under 24 points, and held the dominant Louisville offense, lead by Heisman winner Lamar Jackson, to only 1o total points. In the secondary, they’ve forced seven interceptions, and returned two back for touchdowns. They’ve also sacked the QB 37 times and forced three fumbles, including another recovery that resulted in a defensive touchdown. Likewise, Houston hasn’t lost a game to a Power Five school all season, and two of their three losses were determined by six points or less.

On offense for the Cougars, there is one player you should know about. Their quarterback, Greg Ward Jr, leads the team in rushing yards, and passing yards. He currently is averaging over 300 yards passing per game, and about 50 yards rushing per game. He’s the lifeblood for this Houston team, and how he plays will dictate how the team does. He will have his hands full with San Diego State’s opportunistic defense.

In the Aztec secondary, Damontae Kazee leads the team with seven interceptions alone. The team has a total of 22 picks, and four of those resulted in touchdowns. They also have sacked opposing quarterbacks 31 times. Ward’s speed might help him avoid pass rushers, but will this collapsing pressure force him to make poor decisions in the air?

I think Houston pulls out a tough win here, while Pumphrey breaks the all time rushing record.

Predicted score: 30-27, University of Houston

AutoNation CureBowl; Orlando, Florida, 12/17/16, 5:30PM:

University of Central Florida (-6) vs Arkansas State University

The third matchup of this week is an AAC team in University of Central Florida Knights versus the second best team in the Sun Belt Conference, the Arkansas State Red Wolves. Central Florida barely made it to this bowl game, going 6-6 in their season and finished seventh in their conference. Arkansas State, on the other hand, was 7-1 in their conference, and was the second best team in their conference. Yet, they lost all of their non conference schedule games, going 0-4 against non-Sun Belt opponents.

The Knights have a slightly higher PPG, scoring an average of 30 points per game against the Red Wolves’ 27 points per game. Don’t let that fool you though, the Knights aren’t a good football team. In the second week of the season, they let Michigan put 54 points on them. They haven’t beaten a team with a winning record so far, and lost to both of the Power Five Schools they’ve faced. On the flip side, Arkansas State has actually beaten a team with a winning record this year, so they have that going for them. Since losing their first four games, they’ve gone 7-1, with their one loss coming against Houston, losing by a single score.

On offense for the Red Wolves, the are lead by a tandem of sophomores, with Justice Hansen starting at quarterback, while Warren Wand lines up behind him in the backfield. Both are in their first year of starting, but Wand saw action last year that helped him rush for over 700 yards. The biggest struggle for Arkansas State on offense, is their third down conversion rate. They’ve only converted on 30% of their third downs, going 52 for 170. If you can get them to third down, their offense will stall, and stay in neutral.

On defense, Arkansas State can get to the QB, sacking opposing play callers 37 times this year. They’ve also created 11 interceptions and have a turnover margin of +3. Senior pass rusher Chris Odom has 12.5 sacks alone, in addition to his 17.5 tackles for a loss.

For the Knights, their offense is run through a few freshman. McKenzie Milton starts at quarterback in his first year, while two of their top three rushers are also freshman, and Milton averages about 200 yards passing per game. Jawan Hamilton, leads all players with 481 rushing yards this season. They also struggle heavily on third down, converting only 30% of their chances as well.

On defense, the Knights also have a turnover margin of +3, picking off 15 interceptions in the season. They struggle against the run, giving up an average of 181 yards rushing per game. They can rush the quarterback though, averaging three sacks per game

I had this as our first upset, because I think that this game is just a poor excuse for football, with a bunch of three and outs. But then I saw UCF’s uniforms, and I changed my mind a little. Those jersey are hot fire, and I’m giving them the win strictly based on that.

Predicted score: 21-16, UCF

 

Camellia Bowl; Montgomery, Alabama, 12/17/16, 5:30PM

Appalachian State University (-1) vs University of Toledo

Our fourth matchup of Bowl Season places the Sun Belt Champions, the Appalachian State Mountaineers, versus the second best team in the Mid-American Conference, the Toledo Rockets. Both teams come into the game at 9-3. App State almost made some noise on the first game of the season, when they almost beat a solid Tennessee team. Toledo’s losses this season have come against a high scoring BYU team, PJ Fleck’s undefeated Western Michigan team and an above average Ohio team.

For the Rockets, they’re strengths lay with their QB. Logan Woodside, a junior, has passed for 3882 yards this year. He also has completed close to 70% of his passes, has 43 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. He averages 323 passing yards per game. Three of his receivers all have over 10 receiving touchdowns. On the ground, Kareem Hunt has rushed for 1355 yards this season, and eight touchdowns too. He averages 5.65 yards per carry, and helps bring balance to this potent offense.  Toledo also is very efficient on third down, converting more than half of their chances.


Defensively, the Rockets struggle stopping the run. They’ve given up close to 2000 yards to opposing teams, and give up an average of 165.65 yards on the ground per game. They also struggle getting to the quarterback, having only 20 total sacks this season. Lastly, their turnover margin is a -4, while only creating ten total turnovers in the whole season.

On the other side of the field, App State’s offense is mostly confined to the ground. Taylor Lamb, junior quarterback for the Mountaineers, has 2162 yards in the air, with 14 touchdowns and eight interceptions. At running-back, the Mountaineers have a duo of backs. Jalin Moore and Marcus Cox have combined for 2,239 yards on the ground, and 18 touchdowns between the two. Lamb adds another eight scores on the ground, and is a threat with his legs and arms. One of the problems for the Mountaineers is their struggles on third down, converting only 32.69% of their chances.

For the Mountaineers, they have 21 takeaways on defense, and a turnover margin of +8. If you play sloppy, this team will take the ball away from you, and they have the speed to score points on defense. Their pass rush is average, having 28 sacks on their team. While their offense struggles on third down, their defense thrives in it, stopping opposing offenses 66 percent of the time.

I think Toledo wins this game. I think they win it big, as in two or more scores. Watch for Woodside to have a massive game and for App State’s rushing offense to get some time to shine as well.

Predicted Score: 35-21 Toledo.

New Orleans Bowl; New Orleans, Louisiana, 12/17/16, 9:00PM

University of Southern Mississippi (-2) vs University of Louisiana Lafayette

The last game of Saturday is a matchup of two 6-6 teams. The University of Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles are representing the Conference USA, while the University of Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns are a member of the Sun Belt conference. This game is not a marque matchup, but still better than getting suckered into watching Gilmore Girls on Netflix this Saturday. Neither team has beaten a AP ranked opponent this year, and the Ragin’ Cajuns have only beaten one winning team this year. The Golden Eagles haven’t been much better, as they only have beaten two winning teams this year. Southern Mississippi has the advantage when comparing wins against Power Five teams, but they beat Kentucky, who is the perennial worst team in the SEC (in terms of football success).  They also got demolished against LSU, losing 45-10. At least the Ragin Cajuns put up a fight against Georgia, losing 21-35, but this is a down year for the Bulldogs too.

The offensive for the Ragin Cajuns is somewhat balanced, but has produced under 3000 total yards of offense. Their senior quarterback, Anthony Jennings, completes about 61% of his passes, and has thrown for a little over 2000 yards this season. He averages about 174 passing yards per game, but is almost equal in terms of touchdowns and interceptions. In fact, he has one more interception than touchdown pass this year. What he lacks in throwing ability, he makes up with his legs. Jennings is their second leading rusher, and has seven rushing touchdowns himself. Their best weapon would have to be Elijah McGuire, a running-back who is averaging over four yards per carry and 86 yards on the ground per week. He sits with seven touchdowns, and 1028 yards rushing this season. If Jennings can limit his mistakes, and McGuire can capitalize on the ground, the Cajun’s have a chance to win this game.

Defensively, the secondary can be difference makers, as they’ve forced nine interceptions throughout the season. They’ve also given up 16 passing touchdowns this year, and give up, on average, about 240 passing yards per game. They struggle to get to the quarterback as they’ve only sacked opposing signal callers 23 times this season. That averages to a little under two sacks a game, which is not indicative of good pass rushing teams. They have had seven fumble recoveries, which helped overcome the 16 total turnovers their offense committed this season. That leaves their turnover margin at 0, not good but not bad either.

For the Golden Eagles, their offense is much more explosive. They have over a thousand more yards of total offense than ULL. Their running back, Ito Smith, has 1321 yards rushing, and 15 touchdowns on the ground as well. He averages about 110 rushing yards per game, and is only a junior. Their quarterback, senior Nick Mullens, has 2926 passing yards this season, in only ten games played. He also has 26 total touchdowns to ten interceptions. The offense’s biggest issue is turnovers. The Golden Eagles have lost 15 fumbles this year alone. It helps put their turnover margin at an abysmal -16.

Once again, on defense for the Golden Eagles, their strongest unit is their secondary. Not only have they caused nine interceptions, but they’ve also limited opposing offenses to only 2179 yard through the air this season. They’ve also gotten to the quarterback five more times this season than the Cajuns. Their rushing defense isn’t as stout as their secondary, and they’ve given up over 1700 on the ground, in addition to 25 touchdowns.

This game is a toss up, a coin toss game, because these teams match up well in terms of playing bad football. I’m going with Southern Mississippi, just because I think Conference USA has stronger competition than the Sun Belt.

Predicted score: 27-24 Southern Mississippi.

Check back next week for more previews of Bowl Games throughout Bowl Season.

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