Written by Jon Soloman at CBSSports.com
Welcome to a scenario where the Big Ten could send two teams to the College Football Playoff without either playing for its conference title.
CFP committee chairman Kirby Hocutt won’t say it, but Ohio State remaining at No. 2 confirms the Buckeyes are a lock. Meanwhile, Michigan is not dead. The Wolverines, ranked fifth during Tuesday’s final mock selections, certainly need No. 3 Clemsonand/or No. 4 Washington to lose this week.
But the biggest takeaway Tuesday is how much Hocutt stressed that the gap between Washington and Michigan is “very, very small” and it’s the committee’s job to pick the four best teams. Hocutt said the committee spent about two hours comparing Washington and Michigan.
“I know there were a number of selection committee members that were really struggling between who was the better team,” Hocutt said.
Why does this matter? Because the window seems to be left wide open for Michigan, whose regular season is over, to get into the playoff. Hocutt said the Wolverines played an “impressive” game by losing in double-overtime at Ohio State.
Let’s be clear: If Washington beats Colorado for the Pac-12 championship, the Huskies presumably will be in the playoff. They would have a top-10 win after already being ranked fourth, plus a conference title.
But what if Colorado wins? Michigan would have beaten the Pac-12 champ (Colorado) and the Big Ten champ (No. 6 Wisconsin or No. 7 Penn State). What if Clemson loses to Virginia Tech? Michigan is still sitting at No. 5 to possibly stay ahead of the Big Ten champion.
The committee doesn’t add whatever value it deems appropriate for winning a conference title until it happens so that’s an X-factor. Hocutt continued to stress that when there’s little to no separation when comparing teams, the committee looks at four metrics: conference champions, strength of schedule, head-to-head matchups and results against common opponents. Each member decides which criteria to emphasize more or less.
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