Written by Ron Nelson at ESPN.com
Line: Patriots -3; over/under: 59
- In the previous 15 Super Bowls, underdogs are 11-4 ATS, with eight outright wins.
- This will be the highest over/under in Super Bowl history. Of the previous four highest totals, three went under.
- The over is 15-3 in Falcons games this season, the highest mark in the NFL.
- Of the past 10 Patriots games with a total of 50 or above, nine went under the total.
- The total has gone under in four of the Patriots’ previous six Super Bowls under Bill Belichick.
- Tom Brady is 16-16-1 ATS and 24-9 SU in his playoff career. In his six previous Super Bowl appearances, Brady is 2-4 ATS and 4-2 SU.
- Brady is 4-0 ATS and 4-0 SU against the Falcons in his career, with two of those wins/covers coming against Matt Ryan.
- Ryan is 2-5 ATS in his playoff career, with the only covers coming this season against the Seahawks and Packers. Ryan is 0-2 ATS in his two playoff games on the road.
- The Patriots are 15-3 ATS this season, having covered in seven straight games. This marks the second-best ATS record by a team in the past 40 seasons — the 1989 49ers went 16-3 ATS.
- Only the Patriots and Saints have been better against the spread than the Falcons this season, who are 12-6 ATS.
- The Falcons are 5-0 ATS with four outright wins as an underdog this season. They went 7-6 ATS as a favorite.
- The Patriots are making their ninth Super Bowl appearance. New England is favored for the sixth straight time in the Super Bowl after having been a double-digit underdog in each of its first three appearances.
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