AFC Championship Preview


Written by Nate Davis at USAToday.com

AFC Championship Game: Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots

Time: 6:40 p.m. ET

TV: CBS (Jim Nance, Phil Simms)

Line: Patriots by 6

Injuries: The Steelers will get a boost if TE Ladarius Green is cleared from a concussion that’s kept him out since Dec. 18. Patriots WR Malcolm Mitchell (knee) is practicing again after sitting last week. New England WR Danny Amendola (ankle) and TE Martellus Bennett (knee) continue to be limited in practice.

Weather: Near-freezing temperatures could set in for the game, and a 20% chance of precipitation is currently in the forecast.

Recent history: The Patriots are 9-2 against Pittsburgh with Tom Brady, who beat the Steelers in the 2001 and 2004 AFC Championship games.

When the Steelers have the ball

— RB Le’Veon Bell has been driving this offense for two months, averaging 173.9 yards from scrimmage while finding the end zone 11 times in his last nine games. He thrives at setting up his blocks, accelerating to daylight and running routes as crisp as any receiver. He’s probably the guy Patriots coach Bill Belichick has identified as the player New England must shut down. It’s worth wondering if that task might have been more manageable if athletic LB Jamie Collins hadn’t been traded at midseason.

— Midseason knee surgery prevented QB Ben Roethlisberger from suiting up when these teams played in October. He’s struggled on the road all season (78.4 passer rating away from Heinz Field as opposed to 116.7 at home) and has already thrown three interceptions in these playoffs. The Steelers can’t afford many mistakes Sunday, when Big Ben may need to start distributing the ball if the Patriots successfully commit to shutting down Bell. Pittsburgh has provided solid pass protection, and that could be critical against an average New England pass rush.

— The matchup of the day could be Steelers WR Antonio Brown vs. New England’s Malcolm Butler, who’s developed into one of the league’s top corners. But he’ll have his hands full against Brown, whose 232 receiving yards are more than any other player in this postseason. The spotlight is also on Brown to have a big day after last weekend’s Facebook Live gaffe, and he could be the Steelers’ best hope for success if Bell can’t shake loose.

When the Patriots have the ball

— Expect the unexpected from New England’s running backs. Last weekend was Dion Lewis’ coming-out party. But maybe this week is LeGarrette Blount’s turn – he’s had three- and four-touchdown playoff performances for the Patriots in the past. Or maybe James White, who caught 60 passes this season (not including a 19-yard TD in the divisional round) explodes.

— The Pittsburgh defense is on fire, allowing the fewest yards (266) and points (14) per game in postseason. They’ve forced 18 turnovers, recorded 31 sacks and have yet to allow 200 net passing yards during their nine-game winning streak. But experience can be vital at playoff time. The Steelers, who haven’t been to the AFC Championship Game since 2010 – the last time the Patriots weren’t in it – are starting three rookies, who are still prone to mistakes.

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