Aaron Blair not Living Up to his Hype Train


Written by David O’Brien at AtlantaBraves.com

For the latest in a neverending series of reminders of how most rookie pitchers struggle, whether prospects or not – and Atlanta’s Aaron Blair is definitely a legit prospect – look no further than tonight’s matchup of Blair vs. Reds rookie Daniel Wright.

Blair, who turned 24 in May, is 0-4 with a 7.13 ERA in eight major league starts. This season he was 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA in four starts in Triple-A, with 26 strikeouts and eight walks in 22 innings.
Blair is 0-3 with a 6.08 ERA and .300 opponents’ average in five home starts, and all four homers he’s allowed as a rookie have been at Turner Field.Wright, whoturned 25 in April, is 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA in three major league games including one start. He was 3-0 with a 0.79 ERA in 10 games (four starts) in Double-A and Triple-A this season, with 32 strikeouts and five walks in 34 innings.

The big right-hander has allowed a .313 average, .438 OBP and .484 slugging percentage in 64 at-bats against lefty batters, and .320/.388/.467 in 75 at-bats by righties.

Blair has allowed a .265 average and no homers in 68 at-bats with bases empty, and a .366 average and four homers in 71 at-bats with runners on. Opponents have a .420 OBP and .620 slugging percentage against him with runners on, compared to a .405 OBP and .320 slugging percentage with bases empty.

In first innings, he’s allowed a .371 average (13-for-35) and .467 OBP, with eight walks and five strikeouts.

On first pitches, opponents are 9-for-18 with three homers – that’s right, three of his four homers allowed have been on first pitches.

After getting ahead 0-1, he’s limited hitters to a .200 average and .283 slugging percentage. But after getting behind 1-0 to hitters, Blair has allowed a .377 average (23-for-61) with 11 walks, a .459 OBP and .492 slugging percentage.

In his first 15 ptiches of games, he’s given up a .471 average (8-for-17), .583 OBP and .529 slugging. He’s generally settled in and pitched well from that point until about the fifth inning or third time through the order.

In pitches 76-90, Blair has allowed a .412 average (7-for-17), .545 OBP and .824 slugging percentage, with four walks and no strikeouts.

After going 0-2 with a solid 3.31 ERA and .241 opponents’ average with no homers allowed in his first three major league starts, Blair is 0-2 with a 10.42 ERA and .365 OA in his past five.

Again, Blair is a legit prospect, a smart kid with good stuff. And he has been told and understands when and why he’s struggled so far, what he needs to do.

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