Written by Mark Saxon at ESPN.com
Barring a miracle, the St. Louis Cardinals aren’t going to make up 16 ½ games on the Chicago Cubs in less than a month and win the National League Central. Nowadays, though, there are two extra paths to the playoffs and the Cardinals are in good shape to snag one of the wild cards. Let’s explore their chances.
Where things stand: The Cardinals are just a half-game behind the San Francisco Giants for the first wild-card spot, but just a game ahead of the New York Mets for the second. It could be an interesting race, with no safety net. The other wild-card contenders have faded in recent weeks. The Pittsburgh Piratesare 4 ½ back and the Miami Marlins are 5 ½ back and both now are below .500. Going into Monday’s win over the Pirates, FiveThirtyEight had the Cardinals’ chances of reaching the playoffs at 47 percent.
What’s left: 26 games (14 home, 12 away). Average opponents’ winning percentage: .516, the hardest schedule among the top five teams in the NL wild-card standings. It’s the 10th-hardest remaining schedule in MLB.
Key series: Sept. 5-7 at Pittsburgh; Sept. 15-18 at San Francisco; Sept. 23-25 at Chicago; Sept. 30-Oct. 2 vs. Pittsburgh.
Biggest threat: The Mets. To call the Mets’ remaining schedule soft would be kind. They have a homestand that consists of the Minnesota Twins, Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies, three of the seven worst teams in baseball. The average winning percentage of the Mets’ remaining opponents is .443. The Cardinals couldn’t put the Mets away when the teams met in late August and that could come back to haunt them.
Key players:
Carlos Martinez. At this point, it is probably wise to dispense with the notion that Adam Wainwright is the Cardinals’ ace. Though he has pitched well at times, he has had the worst season of his career, while Martinez has grown into a legitimate No. 1 talent. Proving it in key games will cement his standing in the clubhouse as a player they can build the rotation around next season.
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