Written by Chris Chase at FoxSports.com
Adrian Peterson, the 31-year-old Minnesota Vikings running back, recently told Peter King of The MMQB that he thinks he can play at a “high level” until he’s 40 years old and spoke of various goals (a title being at the top of the list) that included his desire to “break Emmitt’s [Smith’s career rushing] record and Eric Dickerson’s [single-season rushing] record.” Are these just frivolous comments or does AP actually have a chance at playing until he’s 38 or beyond (he admitted 40 might be a bit much), break Emmitt Smith’s career rushing record and finally getting to Dickerson, whose record he missed by eight yards in 2012? We’ll take the last part first.
1. Can Adrian Peterson break Eric Dickerson’s 32-year-old single-season rushing record?
Long story short: There are better odds of actual Vikings pillaging Minneapolis. The biggest reason why Peterson likely can’t surpass that mark (and it’s a recurring theme throughout this post) is that running backs fall off a cliff once they hit 30.
Curtis Martin, 1,697 yards in 2004, No. 32 on all time list
Tiki Barber, 1,662 yards in 2006, No. 41
Walter Payton, 1,551 yards in 1985, No. 63
• Only four more of the top 100 seasons are by players who were 30 (so 7% of the best 100 seasons are by a runner in his 30s.) The best season by a 32-year-old running back was by Walter Payton in ’86, when he ran for 1,333 yards in his second-to-last season. That Payton season is the only one by a 32-year-old to make the top 250 in NFL history.
Barring a miracle, this means Peterson has one somewhat-realistic shot to pass Dickerson: this season. In doing so, he’d have to rush for 345 more yards than he had in his second-best rushing season (the second of his career, when he was 23) and 400 more yards than in his average full season.
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