Written by Reid Forgrave at FoxSports.com
Despite all the talk of a first weekend of madness — two-seed Michigan State losing in the first round, first-round losses by a three-seed, a four-seed and two five-seeds, plus a half-court buzzer-beater that advanced Northern Iowa out of the first round followed by the most painful late-game meltdown in NCAA tournament history two days later — we got pretty much chalk in the Sweet 16.
All the one-seeds are here. Three of the two-seeds are. The most unpredictable region going into this tournament, the West region, is the only one that has seeds one through four all remaining. The only double-digit seeds are Syracuse and Gonzaga, not exactly uncommon names to be hearing in March.
Here’s what we have in store for the Sweet 16.
THURSDAY
No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 Villanova (South)
Line: Villanova -4
The Game: Miami has a superhero on its team, and that superhero is senior point guard Angel Rodrigeuz. But this superhero’s basketball powers can sometimes be used against him; he can either be Good Angel or Bad Angel. When we get Good Angel, we get the second-round win over Wichita State, when Good Angel scored 28 and could hardly miss from the field. But Bad Angel reared a bit of his ugly head even in that game with a career-high seven turnovers. Bad Angel is capable of shooting this team in its foot. Villanova might be the scrappiest, hardest-working team left in this tournament, led by the ridiculous efforts of Josh Hart and Ryan Arcidiacono, he of the headlong dives over press row in the Big East tournament.
My Pick: We get Bad Angel. Villanova wins, getting 22 points apiece from Arcidiacono and Hart. All of those dumb “Jay Wright in March” demons are exorcised (until the next time he loses in the first weekend).
No. 5 Maryland vs. No. 1 Kansas (South)
Line: Kansas -6.5
The Game: How does it feel that Maryland is one of the most disappointing teams in the country despite the fact they’re in the Sweet 16? There’s an argument this team is the nation’s most talented. In mid-February, the Terps looked like they had finally figured out how to fit all these talented pieces together and were ranked second in the country. The Terps have gone 5-5 since then, including the embarrassing loss to Minnesota. Close games haven’t gone their way like they did a year ago; the Terps have been 7-6 in games decided by five points or less (including overtime games).
And Kansas? This is the nation’s deepest, most balanced, most consistent and perhaps healthiest team. In many ways Kansas is Maryland’s opposite. Kansas doesn’t have the elite talent, at least not among its starters; Kansas has zero likely first-round picks who start (depending how Perry Ellis’ draft stock rises or falls before the draft), while Maryland has three dudes (Diamond Stone, Jake Layman and Melo Trimble) who could warrant first-round looks. And yet Kansas’ pieces just fit together perfectly.
My Pick: Maryland could win it all this season. They could. They have the talent. But where’s the evidence that they will? And where’s the evidence that Kansas could stumble? Gotta pick Kansas. By 12. With Wayne Selden getting hot from three, scoring 25 points, and getting arrested after the game for a vicious dunk over Stone that leaves the poor freshman in tears and with a broken ego.
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