Written by John Ewing at USAToday.com
Cinderellas
These are the double-digit seeds with the best chance to reach the Sweet 16:
Gonzaga, the Midwest’s No. 11 seed, has a 27% chance of reaching the Sweet 16. The Zags are back in the tourney for an 18th consecutive season and will be a trendy upset pick in the first round.
The Bulldogs haven’t been a double-digit seed since 2011 and have a chance to make some noise, ranking in the Top 30 of our Power Rankings.
Other teams with similar chances include West 10 seed VCU (22%), East 10 seed Pitt (17%), East 14 seed Stephen F. Austin (16%). First four 11 seeds Wichita State and Vanderbilt are combined 19% and would have 48.1% chance of winning in Round of 64.
Sleepers
These are the teams seeded fifth or worse with the best chance to reach the Final Four:
Purdue is perhaps the most under-seeded team in the tournament. The Boilermakers are No. 9 in Prediction Machine’s Power Rankings – 12th in offensive efficiency and 19th in defensive efficiency (one of just eight teams to be Top 25 in both). Matt Painter’s squad has a 9% chance of making it to Houston, the 13th-best Final Four odds.
Other teams seeded fifth or worse with the best chances of making the Final Four include: East 5 seed Indiana (9%), South 5 seed Maryland (5%) and South 7 seed Iowa (3%).
Busts
Teams seeded fourth or better with the worst chance of reaching the Elite Eight:
Oregon rolled Utah in the Pac-12 championship, and though it is unlikely that the Utes suffer that kind of blowout loss in the tournament, we could still see the Utes exit early.
Additional teams like Utah: South 4 seed Cal (9%), Midwest 4 seed Iowa State (17%), West 4 seed Duke (20%) and East 2 seed Xavier (28%).
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