Written by Michael Salfino at YahooSports.com
Let’s preview this week’s NFL action by first focusing on the games that are expected to produce the most real and fantasy points before I go around the league to highlight the key players we should be watching and why. An important note every week: check the player’s status. There is so much injury uncertainty and Friday’s practice, which occurs after this is posted, is key.
Packers at Falcons (O/U: 52.5): The Falcons lead the league in yards per play and bet the offense vs. the stout defense, meaning play your Falcons fearlessly. Matt Ryan ($40) leads the league in yards per attempt but slumped a little last week against the Chargers. Devonta Freeman ($26) has a hip injury and Tevin Coleman is likely sidelined with a hamstring strain.
The Packers are tough to watch. Aaron Rodgers, who was once Mr. Efficiency, now needs insane passing volume to produce stats. Nothing comes easy for this Green Bay offense as the absence of a deep threat has allowed secondaries to just smother all the underneath and even intermediate routes. Deep routes? What’s that? I can’t bet on Ty Montgomery ($15). I think he’s a sell and, on our podcast this week, Scott Pianowski agrees.
Chiefs at Colts (O/U: 50): I see Jamaal Charles ($17) having a Darren Sproles role in the K.C. offense when he’s capable. That’s his upside: 10-to-15 touches. Given the insane rushing volume, that leaves about 20-to-30 touches for Spencer Ware ($30), who again is averaging more yards per touch than Charles ever did.
The Colts get Donte Moncrief ($19) back but he needs a show-me week. I think tight end defensive splits are a joke and will play Jack Doyle ($16) with no worries. How many teams even feature the tight end like the Colts (25.4 percent market share)? The Chiefs shut down the Jets tight ends who never catch passes. Congrats. Dwayne Allen is out indefinitely, making Doyle top five at the position going forward. T.Y. Hilton ($34) is always a good play. I guess you have to play Jeremy Maclin ($19) if you still own him.
Raiders at Bucs (O/U: 49.5): Are the Raiders truly bettable? That Chiefs game at home was a nightmare. But this Tampa Bay defense is weak at 25th in points allowed per game and also in yards per pass play. Oakland is a total horror show at 30th or worse in seven key defensive categories, including last in yards allowed per play. So this over/under may be conservative.
Jameis Winston ($35) is the rare downfield thrower in today’s game (9.82 yards average pass length, second to Carson Palmer). Derek Carr ($34) is dink and dunk though at 26th in that stat, which really hurts a supreme downfield weapon like Amari Cooper ($32). This makes league-leading touchdown receiver Michael Crabtree ($30), who is playing much taller than 6-foot-1 and showing elite boundary skills, a good bet going forward. Crabtree has become a poor-man’s Cris Carter.
To continue reading this article, click here.
