How many times have you heard analysts refer to the NFL as “a passing league” in recent years? At first glance, that axiom certainly appears to be true. Pass attempts, passing yardage, touchdown passes, and passer rating are all at their highest levels in history and this trend shows no signs of slowing down. However, today’s passing games are also more conservative and horizontal than at any point in NFL history. As completion percentage continues to rise, the average length of those completions is dropping just as quickly. The chart below shows the relationship between completion % and air yards per completion since 1992 (that’s when air yards started being tracked):
As you can see, completion percentage has risen steadily in recent years, but it’s come at the cost of throwing downfield. The passes in today’s NFL are significantly shorter than they were even 10 years ago. I included week 1 of the 2015 season for comparison’s sake, and it stands out like a sore thumb. The average length of completion has absolutely fallen off a cliff so far this year. Now, it’s highly probable that this will regress toward the levels of recent seasons, but also fairly likely that 2015 will end up being the most conservative passing season in NFL history.
To continue reading this article by Adam Steele at Sporting Charts, click here.
