Written by Chris Low at ESPN.com
To some degree, we’re all probably guilty of putting too much stock into bowl results and how a team finishes a season when trying to predict how a team will fare that next season.
Only two teams — Alabama and Ohio State — have finished in the top 10 of the final Associated Press poll each of the past three seasons. And in the past two seasons, only four teams have finished in the top 10 both years. Clemson and Oklahoma are the other two in that group.
It’s not easy to sustain success at the highest level in college football, and we’ve all been fooled when it comes to picking a team that’s going to carry momentum from one season to the next. That’s because every season stands on its own. We don’t have a crystal ball on injuries, player suspensions, player development, team chemistry, leadership and what a schedule looks like come October.
So with all this in mind, I’m going to buy three teams for 2017 that looked good during the 2016 bowl season, and I’m going to sell three teams for 2017 that were equally impressive during the 2016 bowl season.
If I’m wrong, I’m sure I won’t hear from any of you.
BUYING
Florida State
Maybe it really is an ACC world now in college football. With Clemson basking in the glow of its 2016 national championship, Florida State has all of the components to make it a repeat for the ACC in 2017. The Seminoles won their last five games and seven of their last eight, including a 33-32 win over Michigan in the Orange Bowl, to cap the 2016 season. The best part for FSU fans is that Jimbo Fisher has told some close to him that he thinks his next two teams could be among his most talented.
The Seminoles return Deondre Francois at quarterback, and look for him to emerge as one of the top quarterbacks in the country. He passed for 3,350 yards and 20 touchdowns as a redshirt freshman, and the Seminoles love their young receiving talent. Dalvin Cook is gone, but Jacques Patrick gets his chance to be the feature back along with prized signee Cam Akers, who enrolled early, and rising sophomore Amir Rasul, who’s an absolute blur. On defense, the Seminoles have to replace DeMarcus Walker’s production at end (16 sacks), butDerrick Nnadi is returning for his senior season and will pair with Demarcus Christmas to give the Seminoles one of the most imposing tackle tandems in the country. Safety Derwin James was one of the best players in the nation until he injured his knee in the second week, and rising junior cornerback Tarvarus McFadden is back after being a finalist for the Bronko Nagurski Trophy. Alabama and Florida State square off in Atlanta on Sept. 2 to kick off the 2017 season. Anybody taking bets on a rematch in the College Football Playoff?
Oklahoma State
For all the talk about Mike Gundy’s mullet, the guy can flat-out coach. He has built a perennial top-20 program in Stillwater without being a fixture in the top 20 of the recruiting rankings. The Cowboys won eight of their last nine games in 2016 and closed out the season with a 38-8 rout of Colorado in the Valero Alamo Bowl. It was their third 10-win season in the past four years. They’re poised for a run at the Big 12 championship next season with one of the most productive QB-WR combos in the country returning, and both will be seniors. Quarterback Mason Rudolph passed for 4,091 yards and 28 touchdowns last season and only four interceptions. Receiver James Washington had 71 catches, averaged 19.4 yards per catch and caught 10 touchdown passes. There won’t be many receiving corps in college football better than what the Cowboys can put on the field next season, and running back Justice Hill also gives them a presence in the running game after rushing for more than 1,000 yards last season as a freshman and earning Big 12 Newcomer of the Year honors.
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