Tim Lincecum Returns to MLB, Don’t Be Too Excited


Written by Dayn Perry at CBSSports.com

On Saturday, Angels right-hander Tim Lincecum made his first major-league start since June 27 of last year, and it seemingly went well, as he allowed one run over six innings against the Athletics (LAA 7, OAK 1).

Needless to say, this is noteworthy. Lincecum, beloved as a quirky and undersized two-time Cy Young winner for the Giants, is a welcome presence in the game for a number of reasons. He’s also worked his way back from offseason hip surgery, and his post-surgery showcase led to his signing a one-year, $2.5 million contract with the pitching-starved Angels.

In those senses, it was good to see Lincecum’s keeping runs off the board against a major-league lineup. However, let’s not yet bellow from the rooftops that Lincecum is back and capable of rotation excellence. After all, we’re talking about a single start, which, as data samples go, is infinitesimal.
Also, keep these things in mind about Lincecum’s Saturday efforts:

1. The A’s are a really bad offensive team.

Oakland this season ranks last in the AL in OBP with a .302 mark. They also rank 11th in the AL in slugging percentage. Yes, their home ballpark — the site of Lincecum’s start — suppresses run scoring, but they also rank 12th in the AL in Weighted Runs Created+ (wRC+), which is park-adjusted. Against right-handers like Lincecum? Thus far in 2016, the A’s rank last in the AL in OBP versus RHPs, 14th in slugging percentage, and tied for last in wRC+. So they’re even worse against righties.

2. Lincecum’s outing wasn’t as strong as you might think.

As noted, Lincecum held the A’s to one run over six frames. However, he struck out just two while walking two and hitting one batsman. He also needed 98 pitches to get through those six innings. Yes, Lincecum’s ERA for the game was a nifty 1.50. However, according to FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), which is scaled to look like ERA but reflects just those outcomes that have nothing to do with fielding — i.e., strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed — Lincecum’s ERA for the day should have been a more pedestrian 3.96. Again, though, we’re talking about a single isolated start.

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