How Will Kaepernick Do In His Start?


Written by Mark Schofield at Washington Post.com

Chip Kelly’s San Francisco 49ers, sitting last in the NFC West at 1-4, have changed quarterbacks, replacing Blaine Gabbert with Colin Kaepernick. With the switch, there is hope that Kaepernick can return to form — perhaps with a return to his roots — as an upper-tier quarterback in the league.

At the height of his career, Kaepernick was a dynamic young quarterback who thrived in former coach Jim Harbaugh’s offense, leading them to a Super Bowl berth in 2012. During that season, Kaepernick completed 62.4 percent of his passes for 1,814 yards and 10 touchdowns, with only three interceptions. During the playoffs, Kaepernick sustained this level of play, completing 61.3 percent of his passes for 798 yards and four touchdowns with two interceptions over a three-game stretch.

Everything changed during the 2014 season, though, as the 49ers finished 8-8 and missed the playoffs for the first time under Harbaugh. While Kaepernick’s 60.5 percent completion percentage and 19 to 10 touchdown-to-interception ratio were similar to his 2013 numbers, signs of trouble were already present. His yards per drop back showed a steep decline: In 2012, Kaepernick ranked No. 2 in this metric at 7.39; he fell to ninth in 2013 (6.71) and 22nd in 2014 (6.11).

Last season? Kaepernick ranked 35th in the league at 5.46.

How then can Kelly and the 49ers coaching staff get Kaepernick back to the level at which he performed in 2012 and 2013? The answer lies in the pistol formation.

Kaepernick played under coach Chris Ault, the innovator of the pistol offense, at the University of Nevada, finishing as the only quarterback in Football Bowl Subdivision history to have passed for more than 10,000 and rushed for more than 4,000 yards in a collegiate career.

During their run to the Super Bowl, the 49ers used the pistol formation 49.2 percent of the time on offense throughout the 2012 playoffs, in sharp contrast to the regular season where they used it on just 70 of their 969 offensive plays. In 2013, San Francisco used the formation on 15.3 percent of regular season plays, well above the league average of 3.5 percent. On these plays, Kaepernick was at his best in terms of yards per attempt (9.4) and yards per completion (5.9). By contrast, in a traditional offense under center, Kaepernick averaged 7.1 yards per attempt and 5.0 yards per completion.

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