If you simply watched Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes play without paying attention to where the ball ended up, you would wonder how he made it to the NFL playing so recklessly. The way he dances around the pocket with gusto, the sidearm angles at which he passes, the across-his-body throws, the no-look bullets –- these are not things most NFL quarterbacks are supposed to even think about trying.
Yet Mahomes, who faces the 49ers’ No. 2-ranked defense in the Super Bowl on Sunday, has produced at a historically dominant level playing with this street-ball mentality. Week after week, the top-10 highlight packages are peppered with moments of Mahomes magic — bombs thrown to Tyreek Hill while scrambling, precisely placed corner routes to Travis Kelce, pinpoint strikes under pressure to Mecole Hardman.
The gunslinger from Texas Tech is an elite quarterback. There is absolutely zero way to craft a solid argument suggesting otherwise. However, the real question is, How great is Mahomes? With an excellent play-caller at head coach, a star-studded receiving corps, and a standout offensive line, has he benefited from a terrific supporting cast more than most realize? Or is Mahomes, who threw for 4,031 yards and 26 TDs this season, truly the best quarterback in the world?
Those are questions I set out to answer in analyzing the All-22 angles of every play from Mahomes’ 2019 season. I graded each play (excluding handoffs, of course) to get a gauge on his true overall performance level. By taking into account drops, pressure, throw difficulty, ball placement, down/distance, game situation and decision-making (did the quarterback choose the best option available?), we can get a more accurate evaluation of a quarterback’s performance. A box score does not account for these important factors.
I scored each Mahomes play on a 0-to-10 scale. An average play (screen passes, throwaways) received a 5, an inexcusably brutal play (awful turnovers or should-be turnovers) earned a 0, and the perfect play (flawlessly placed throws into tight windows under heavy pressure) warranted a 10. Most plays fall somewhere in the middle, with “plus” efforts scoring above 5 and “minus” efforts below. Each game’s final score was scaled from 0-100, with 50 being average.
Let’s dig into Mahomes’ 2019 season.
In Week 2, Mahomes strafed the Raiders’ defense for 443 yards passing. Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports
BEST GAME: Week 2 at Raiders (93.2 grade)
Mahomes put up stellar numbers, completing 30 of 44 passes for 443 yards (10.1 per attempt), three touchdowns and no interception and generating a 131.2 passer rating (90.4 is league average). Stat lines often tell the wrong story about how well the quarterback actually played, which we will get into plenty later on. In this case, Mahomes’ performance matched up with his outstanding numbers.
The Raiders were awful defensively in 2019, ranking 31st in DVOA. Mahomes beat them down as brutally as you would expect. In the second quarter, he had a seven-play stretch that might stand against any in the history of the league. He completed each of his final seven passes in the quarter for 210 yards and three touchdowns, with six of those completions being elite-level plays.
Mahomes was as Mahomes-ian as ever during this stretch, anticipating pressure and sliding away before it arrived to buy himself space. He completed tight-window deep throws on the move with wonderful precision. When the pocket was clean, he set himself and patiently dropped vertical throws down the sideline right into the bucket.
On this 3rd-and-20 play late in the second quarter, Mahomes begins sliding to the outside the instant it is clear pressure will come up the middle. This is an innate feel that Mahomes has at a level few quarterbacks ever have -– it’s Aaron Rodgers-esque. By doing this, Mahomes buys himself room to throw in a situation where most other quarterbacks would have been sacked or hit while throwing. It is still a highly pressured, off-balance throw, but Mahomes has the gift of an arm that can deliver accurate throws off a non-traditional base with ease. Mahomes effortlessly drops the ball over two defenders into the waiting arms of Mecole Hardman, who does not break stride.
Mahomes’ performance in the divisional round against Houston was a close second, grading 91.7. The Chiefs’ offense made life tough on Mahomes early, dropping passes and allowing heavy pressure, but he remained poised and made play after play outside the pocket to help erase Houston’s 24-0 lead. He was particularly good in the red zone, producing classic Mahomes moments with a laser-beam touchdown up the seam to Damien Williams and a leaping flick to Travis Kelce for another score.
WORST GAME: Week 6 vs. Texans (36.9 grade)
Mahomes is highly consistent, as I only graded two of his 16 games below an average grade of 50. His worst game was in a 31-24 loss at home to the Texans in Week 6.
Mahomes put up solid numbers, completing 19 of 35 passes for 273 yards (7.8 per attempt), three touchdowns and one interception and generating a 96.5 passer rating. But those numbers don’t reflect how poorly he played. Houston did an excellent job keeping Mahomes from escaping the pocket.
Thanks to his sublime accuracy and football IQ, Mahomes rarely makes costly mistakes, but the Houston game was one of the few instances in which his aggressive mentality produced negative results. In addition to an interception and a lost fumble, Mahomes threw two other passes that should have been intercepted, one of those seen below. Mahomes foolishly tries to squeeze this ball to Hill into an air-tight window between the corner and safety, and it is caught by Texans safety Justin Reid. Fortunately for Mahomes’ fantasy owners, Reid does not get two feet in bounds.
Mahomes’ only other sub-50 game was a 47.5 performance in New England, a game the Chiefs won, 23-16. The Patriots were so dominant defensively that Mahomes’ mediocre outing was one of the few decent quarterback performances they allowed all season.
Against New England, Mahomes played conservatively, a rare event, doing a nice job avoiding costly mistakes and keeping the chains moving. Those may seem like two simple tasks, but most quarterbacks could not come close to fulfilling them against the Patriots in 2019.
On the downside, Mahomes’ conservative approach led to him passing up open targets in the 20-plus yard range. A lack of big plays outside of the pocket was a common thread in Mahomes’ worst games.
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Originally posted on Yardbarker | By Michael Nania | Last updated 1/28/20
